银行行业：资产质量预期企稳将降低拨备计提压力，维持“跑赢大市”评级

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1、股票研ityResearchSectorReport:BankingSector究RichardCao曹柱Equ行业报告：银行行业+8675523976870caozhu013592@gtjas.com10July2017ExpectedStabilizationofAssetQualitywillDecreasePressureonSettingAsideProvisions,Maintain“Outperform”行资产质量预期企稳将降低拨备计提压力，维持“跑赢大市”评级业WeexpectYoYgrowthofthebankingsector'sbalan

2、ceoftotalloansandtotalRating:Outperform报assetstobe12.0%and10.5%in2017,respectively.In2H17,weexpecttheMaintainedctorReportbankingsector'sNIMtorecoverbyasmallmargincomparedwith1Q17,and告NIMoftheChinesebankingsectorfor2017isexpectedtobearound2.11%,评级：跑赢大市(维持)Sedownnearly11bpsYoY.In2H17,n

3、on-interestbusinessesareexpectedtorecordmoderategrowth,andcost-to-incomeratioisprojectedtoremainrelativelylow.In2H17,alongwiththestabilizationofassetquality,theSectorPerformance行业表现pressureonChinesemainlandbankstosetasideprovisionswillweaken25.0%gradually,andtheerosionofimpairmentlos

4、sestonetprofitisexpectedtobecorrespondinglymitigated.Allthingsconsidered,weexpectYoYgrowthof20.0%theChinesebankingsector'snetprofitin2017/2018/2019tobe15.0%4.9%/5.9%/6.5%,respectively.10.0%Asat7July2017,the2017weightedaveragePERandPBRofmainlandlistedbanksunderourcoveragestoodat5.5xa

5、nd0.7x,respectively.The5.0%证currentvaluationsarestilllowinourview.In2H17,weexpectthefollowing0.0%券factorstosupportbankvaluations:1)weexpecttheChineseeconomytoJan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17stabilizeandthestructureoftheeconomytobeoptimizedfurther;2)wethink-5.0%研HISindexInde

6、xofmainlandChinesebanksinHongKong告thateconomicriskstotheChineseeconomywilldecreasefurthergiventheSource:Bloomberg.究government'sorientationondeleveragingpolicy;3)weprojecttheChinese报报bankingsector'snetprofitgrowthtorecovertoacertainextentfromtheBankingSectorNetProfitandYoYityResearchR

7、eport究currenttrough;3)weexpectassetqualitytocontinuetostabilize.Therefore,Growth告wemaintain“Outperform”ratingfortheChinesebankingsectorin银行业净利润及其同比增速Equ研2H17.180.0RMB10bn40.0%160.035.0%券我们预计2017年银行业的总贷款和总资产余额的同比增速分别为12.0%和10.5%。2017140.030.0%年下半年，我们预计银行业净息差较2017年一季度将小幅回升，预计2017年中国银行

8、业120.025.0%证