银行行业：2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级

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1、SectorReport:BankingSectorRichardCao曹柱行业报告：银行行业(86755)23976870caozhu013592@gtjas.com4January2019EarningsGrowthExpectedtoRemainStablein2019,MaintainSectorReportEquityResearch"Outperform"2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级lWeexpectYoYgrowthoftheChinesebankingsector'sbalanceoftotalloansandtotal

2、assetstobe13.3%and9.9%in2019,respectively.AsweprojectthatChina'sliquidityconditionswillbeneutralandslightlyloose,weexpectNIMofthebankingsectortoremainrelativelystable,reachingaround2.16%Rating:OutperformMaintainedin2019.Weprojectthebankingsector'snetfeeincometogrowatamoderatepacei

3、n2019.Asweprojectassetqualitytoremainstable,pressureofprovisioningforbanksisexpectednottorise.Allthingsconsidered,weexpectthatYoYgrowthofthebankingsector'snetprofitin2018and2019willbe6.0%and6.2%,respectively.EquityResearchReportlAsat31December2018,the2019weightedaveragePERandPBRofma

4、inlandbanksunderourcoveragestoodat5.2xand0.7x,respectively.Thecurrentvaluationsarestilllowinourview.In2019,weexpectthefollowingfactorstosupportbankvaluations:1)weexpectChina'seconomytogrowsteadilyandeconomicstructuretobeoptimizedfurther;2)wethinkChina'seconomicriskswilldecreasefurth

5、ergiventhegovernment'sdeleveragingandthestringentregulation;3)thenegativeimpactofstringentfinancialregulationonbankvaluationsisexpectedtomitigate;4)weexpectthecutinRRRsbythePBOCtostrengthenprofitabilityofbanks;5)weprojecttheChinesebankingsector'snetprofitgrowthtoremainstable;and6)we

6、expecttheChinesebankingsector'sassetqualitytoremainstable.Therefore,wemaintain"Outperform"ratingforthebankingsectorin2019.l我们预计中国银行业总贷款和总资产余额的同比增速2019年分别为13.3%和9.9%。由于我们预测中国流动性环境将中性偏松，我们预计2019年银行的净息差将维持稳定，达2.16%左右。我们预计银行业净手续费收入在2019年温和增长。在预期资产质量维持稳定的背景下，银行拨备计提压力预计不会提升。考虑到以上所有因素，我们预计

7、银行业2018评级：跑赢大市(维持)SectorPerformance行业表现25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%IndexofmainlandChinesebanksinHongKongHISindexSource:Bloomberg.BankingSectorNetProfitandYoYGrowth银行业净利润及其同比增速年和2019年净利润同比增速分别为6.0%和6.2%。BankingSectorl截至2018年12月31日，我们覆盖的中资银行2019年的加权平均市盈率与市净率分别为

8、5.2倍与0.7倍。我们认为当前估值仍