银行业：2018年盈利增速预计将进一步恢复、资产质量预期改善，维持“跑赢大市”评级

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1、股票研ityResearchSectorReport:BankingSector究RichardCao曹柱Equ行业报告：银行行业+8675523976870caozhu013592@gtjas.com19December2017EarningsGrowthExpectedtoRecoverFurtherandAssetQualityProjectedtoImprovein2018,Maintain“Outperform”行2018年盈利增速预计将进一步恢复、资产质量预期改善，维持“跑赢大市”评级业WeexpectYoYgrowtho

2、ftheChinesebankingsector'sbalanceoftotalloansRating:Outperform报andtotalassetstobe13.1%and10.1%in2017,respectively,and12.2%andMaintainedctorReport10.5%in2018,respectively.AsweexpectthatChina'sliquidityconditionswill告评级：跑赢大市(维持)beslightlytightin2018,wethinktheaveragelevels

3、ofinterestratesinChinaSewillcontinuetoclimbmarginally,whichisexpectedtocontinuetomakethebankingsector'sNIMexpandtoasmallextent.In2018,non-interestSectorPerformancebusinessesareexpectedtorecordmoderategrowth,andcost-to-incomeratio行业表现isprojectedtoremainrelativelylow.In201

4、8,alongwiththeimprovementof55.0%assetquality,thepressureofsettingasideprovisionsforbanksisexpectedto45.0%mitigatefurther.Allthingsconsidered,weexpectthatthebankingsector'sYoYgrowthofnetprofitin2017,2018and2019willbe7.0%,9.9%and35.0%10.9%,respectively.25.0%Asat19December

5、2017,the2017weightedaveragePERandPBRof15.0%mainlandbanksunderourcoveragestoodat5.7xand0.8x,respectively.The5.0%证currentvaluationsarestilllowinourview.In2018,weexpectthefollowing-5.0%券factorstosupportbankvaluations:1)weexpecttheChineseeconomytostabilizeandeconomicstructur

6、etobeoptimizedfurther;2)wethinkthat-15.0%研HISindexIndexofmainlandbanksinHongKong告exposuretoeconomicfactorswilldecreasefurthergiventhegovernment'sSource:Bloomberg.究orientationondeleveragingpolicy;3)weprojecttheChinesebankingsector's报报netprofitgrowthtorecoverfurther;and4)w

7、eexpecttheChinesebankingBankingSectorNetProfitandYoYityResearchReport究sector'sassetqualitytoimprove.Therefore,wemaintain“Outperform”Growth告ratingforthebankingsectorin2018.银行业净利润及其同比增速Equ研180.0RMB10bn40.0%我们预计中国银行业的总贷款和总资产余额的同比增速2017年分别为13.1%和10.1%、160.035.0%券2018年分别为12.

8、2%和10.5%。由于我们预计2018年中国整体流动性环境预计将略偏紧，140.030.0%因此我们预计中国市场整体利率水平仍将小幅攀升，从而预计将继续使银行业的净息差继120.025.0%证100.0续小