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1、SectorReport20December2018TableofContentsPolicyandMonetaryEnvironment3SectorFundamentals5SectorCharacteristics9Valuation11PropertySector房地产行业InvestmentRatingandTopPick12PolicyandMonetaryEnvironment20December2018Targetedtighteningpolicieshaveclimbedalmosttothepeak.
2、Uptonow,targetedpolicieshaveincorporatedpurchaserestrictions,salesrestrictions,ASPrestrictions,mortgagerestrictionsandcommercialpropertyrestrictions.Theserestrictionshaveexertednegativeeffectsoneveryaspectofhousingsales,includingsupply,demandandsalesprice.Besides,
3、thepolicyhasnotriggertotaperfurtherongroundsofgradualcoolingdowninthepropertymarket.ThepropertysectorhasnotbeenmentionedinthelasttwoconferencesofthePoliticalBureauoftheCentralCommittee.However,thetighteningpolicyenvironmentwillextendunlessanunexpectedcrashinhousin
4、gsalesandASPdamagestheeconomy.Table1:CitiesExperiencingTighteningPoliciesRegionProvinceCityShanghaiShanghaiYangtzeRiverDeltaJiangsuYangzhou,Suzhou,Wuxi,Nanjing,Zhenjiang,Changzhou,XuzhouandNantongZhejiangHangzhou,Jiaxing,andNingboGuangdongGuangzhou,Shenzhen,Foshan
5、,Dongguan,Zhuhai,HuizhouandJiangmenPearlRiverDeltaGuangxiFujianNanningPingtan,Minhou,Fuzhou,QuanzhouandXiamenHainanAllCitiesinHainanProvinceBeijingBeijingJing-Jin-JiTianjinTianjinHebeiCangzhou,Zhangjiakou,Langfang,Qinghuangdao,Tangshan,bazhouandbaodingShandongShan
6、dongJinanandQingdaoShanxiShanxiTaiyuanHenanZhengzhouCentralHunanHubeiChangshaWuhanAnhuiHefeiandChuzhouChongqingChongqingWesternSichuanGansuChengduLanzhouShanxiXianPropertySector房地产行业Source:ChinaRealEstateInformationCorp.,GuotaiJunanInternational.Months9.99.79.3Fig
7、ure1:ASPof70CitiesFigure2:InventoryTurnoverbyCityTierinChina12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18
8、-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%ASPYoYofNewlyConstructionHousesASPMomofNewlyConstructionHousesASPYoYofSecondHousesASPMoMofSecondHouses30.025.020.015.010.05.0Jan-1
