银行行业：2019年盈利及资产质量前景稳健，维持“跑赢大市”_评级

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1、SeethelastpagefordisclaimerBankingSectorMainlandChinesebanks("mainlandbanks")listedinHongKongoutperformedtheHongKongHangSengindexsofarin2019.Asat10June2019,theYTDweightedreturnofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongoutperformedtheHangSengindex.IntermsoftheYTD

2、weightedreturntrendofmainlandbankslistedinHongKong,thehighestYTDweightedreturnsofarin2019was33.6%on8April2019.Asat10June2019,theYTDweightedreturnofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongwas23.6%.Exhibit1:TheHongKongHangSengIndexandH-ShareIndextrendofmainlandban

3、ks40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19-5.0%HISindexIndexofmainlandChinesebanksinHongKongSource:GuotaiJunanInternational.Note:indexofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongarecompositedbytheweightedaveragemarketcapitali

4、zationofthemainlandbankslistedinHongKong,asat5June2019.China'seconomygrewsteadilyin1-4M19.In1Q19,ChineseGDPrecordedYoYgrowthof6.4%,down0.4ptsYoY.TheChineseeconomygotofftoasteadystartandeconomicstructurecontinuedtoimprove.TheIndustrialandserviceindustr

5、iesgrewrapidly,investmentgrowthpickedupsteadily,andconsumptionremainedstableoverall.In1-4M19,industrialproductionroseby5.4%YoY.Fixedassetinvestmentgrewby6.1%YoYin1-4M19.NominalYoYgrowthofretailsalesofconsumergoodsinAprilwas7.2%.Exportsandimportscontin

6、uedtogrowbutgrowthofexportsandimportsdroppedasaresultofSino-UStradefriction.In1-4M19,exportsandimportsincreasedby5.7%YoYand2.9%YoY,respectively.Exhibit2:YoYgrowthofChineseindustrialproductionExhibit3:YoYgrowthofChinesefixedassetinvestment(Accumulated)

7、20.018.016.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.018.016.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0%%Source:theNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.Source:theNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.Page2of41Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-

8、17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Apr-14Aug-14Dec-14Apr-15Aug-15Dec-15Apr-16Aug-16Dec-16Apr-17Aug-17Dec-17Apr-18Aug-18Dec-18Apr-19BankingSector银行行业10June2019SectorReportaddition,thePeople'sBankofChinadecidedtoimpleSeethel