德意志银行-南非-黄金-南非黄金业绩预览-2017.8.15-sagold：results preview-20170815-deutschebank

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1、SAGoldDeutscheBankMarketsResearchSub-SaharanAfricaIndustryDateSouthAfrica15August2017SAGoldGoldIndustryUpdateSAgold:resultspreviewPatrickMann,CFAGoldFields,AngloGoldreporting1H17.HarmonyGoldreportingFY17.WehaveupdatedourmodelsaheadofGoldFields(1H17)andHarmonyResearchAnalyst(FY17)resultsonThursday,

2、17August2017,andAngloGold(1H17)onMonday,+27-11-775-728221August2017,takingintoaccountrecenttradingstatements.Wehavedowngradedournear-termearningsandcashflowexpectationsforAngloGold;KeyChangesincreasednear-termexpectationsforGoldFieldsandmademinoroperationalCompanyTargetPriceRatingANGJ.J150.00to-for

3、ecastchangestoHarmony.AngloGoldPTR137ps(R150),GoldFieldsPTR53ps137.00(R45);retainHold.HarmonyGoldPT,unchangedPTR19ps,Sell.GFIJ.J45.00to53.00-Source:DeutscheBankANG,GFIearningsguideddown,HARguideduponJuneyear-end,hedgesToppicksAngloGoldguided1H17headlinelossofUS$(80)-(98)m/USc(19)-(23)psvs.AngloGol

4、dAshanti(ANGJ.J),ZAR132.79HoldUS$93m/USc23psin1H16.Production1.748koz(guided)flaty-on-yatDBeGoldFields(GFIJ.J),ZAR54.14HoldcashcostsatUS$785/oz(+11%y-on-y)andAISCatUS$1,073/oz(+18%y-Harmony(HARJ.J),ZAR23.67Sellon-y).DBeEBITDAUS$607m(-22%y-on-y),capexUS$470m(+48%y-on-y),Source:DeutscheBankFCFUS(98)m

5、(1H16+US$108m).AngloGoldguidedretrenchment(US$47m)Companiesfeatured&silicosisprovisions(US$46m),bothinHEPS,andimpairmentsofUS$86m.AngloGoldAshanti(ANGJ.J),ZAR132.79HoldGoldFieldsguided1H17HEPSofUSc8-10ps(c.US$66-82m),-38%-50%y-on-y2016A2017E2018E(1H16USc16ps/US$124m)&normalisedHEPSofUSc9-11ps(1H16

6、+USc13ps).DBEPS(USD)0.35-0.330.38Productionflaty-on-yat1,047kozatanAISCofUS$980/oz(-1%y-on-y)andP/E(x)41.1–26.2AICofUS$1,103/oz(+8%y-on-y),(allguided).DBeEBITDAUS$506m(-13%y-EV/EBITA(x)12.679.412.5on-y),capexUS$396m(+23%y-on-y),FCFoutflowUS$(39)m(1H16+US$60m),GoldFields(GFIJ.J),ZAR54.14HoldDPSSAc37p

7、s(1H16SAc50ps).GoldFieldsalsoguidedtoasilicosisprovision2016A2017E2018EofUS$30m.HarmonyguidedFY17HEPSSAc276ps-320ps(+25-45%y-on-y)DBEPS(USD)0.230.230.17on1.088Mozproduction(flat).AlsoguidedR1.7bnimpairment,R917msi