德银-南非-贵金属市场-南非黄金2018q1：处于资本支出的峰值

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1、SAGoldsDeutscheBankMarketsResearchSub-SaharanAfricaIndustryDateSouthAfrica15January2018SAGoldsGoldForecastChange1Q18SAGold:overthecapexhumpPatrickMann,CFAExpectgoldpricetoshrugoffworriesofhigherrates,adjustRandstrongerResearchAnalystWeraiseourgoldpriceforecastsby+3%toUSD1,283/ozfor2018a

2、ndleaveour2019forecastinplaceatUSD1,266/oz.OurRand/USDforecasts,basedonthe+27-11-775-7282forwardcurve,areforastrongerthanpreviouslyforecastRandby10%/9%,8%/6%KeyChangesfor2018/2019/2020/2021andby4%strongerthereafter.WearenowusingaCompanyTargetPriceRatingRandofR12.75/USDfor2018E.Thevalua

3、tionofgoldoperationswithinSouthANGJ.J175.00to-Africa(withRandcostbases)arethusdisproportionatelyimpactedbyourforecast155.00changes.Wedowngradeourpricetargetsbyanaverageof13%.WehavemadeHARJ.J25.00to20.00-norecommendationchangesandretainBuyrecommendationsonAngloGold(PTSGLJ.J20.00to16.00-

4、R155ps)andGoldFields(PtR65ps)withbothcompanieshavingpassedcapexSource:DeutscheBankhumpsin2017andforecasttoimprovefreecashflowinto2018.WeretainHoldToppicksrecommendationsonHarmonyandonSibanye-Stillwater.WithaneutraloutlookGoldFields(GFIJ.J),ZAR54.24Buyforthegoldpriceandthesectorat0.9xPri

5、cetoNPVonDBeandspot,weareAngloGoldAshanti(ANGJ.J),ZAR134.00BuyneutralonthesectorandadvocatebeingselectiveinSAgoldstockownership.Source:DeutscheBankCompaniesfeaturedSibanye'sLonminacquisition:benefitfromprocessingbuthighersharecountGoldFields(GFIJ.J),ZAR54.24BuyForSibanyeStillwater,wehav

6、eaccountedfortheall-shareacquisitionofAngloGoldAshanti(ANGJ.J),ZAR134.00BuyLonminbyincorporatingLonmin's(negative)NPV,whichismostlyoffsetbytheHarmony(HARJ.J),ZAR22.20HoldpositiveimpactonNPVofavoidedtollingfeesfrom2021EonRustenburgPGMSibanye-Stillwater(SGLJ.J),ZAR16.33Holdproduction.Weha

7、veusedanexpandednumberofsharesinissue.Source:DeutscheBankGold:shrugsoffworriesofhigherratesonlowerlong-termrealrates&inflationFundamentaldownsidetothegoldpriceappearstobeanever-recedingmiragedespitetheinevitablepullbackfromunusuallyaccommodativepolicyatmajorcentralbanks.Investorsremain