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1、SAPlatinumDeutscheBankMarketsResearchSub-SaharanAfricaIndustryDateSouthAfrica12October2017SAPlatinumPlatinumRecommendationChange4Q17SAPlatinum:modestdeficitsemergingPatrickMann,CFANear-termpricesmarkedhigherbutfullrecoverystillsomewayoutResearchAnalystWehave
2、increasedourpricetargetsfortheproducersbyanaverageof10%afterupgradingourRand-basketpriceforecastsfor2017and2018by4%and+27-11-775-72826%,respectively.TheupgradesfollowstrongpriceperformancesfrompalladiumKeyChanges(+31%ytd)andrhodium(+61%ytd),whichledustoupgr
3、adebothmetals'CompanyTargetPriceRatingpriceforecastsby18%in2018toUS$930/ozandUS$1,000/oz,respectively.TheLONJ.J8.00to9.50-platinumpricehaslaggedin2017,down3%year-to-datetoUS$914/oz,butweAMSJ.J355.00to-expectapricerecoveryin2018toUS$1,088/oz.WeupgradeImpalat
4、oaBuy375.00(R35psPT),ona9%increasetoourpricetarget(thestockisdown27%year-IMPJ.J32.00to35.00HoldtoBuyto-date).WehaveunchangedrecommendationsonAmplats(Buy,R375psPT),LMI.L53.00to54.00-Northam(Hold,R44psPT),Lonmin(Sell,R9.50ps/GBp54psPT)andRBPlat(Hold,NHMJ.J39.
5、00to48.00-R31psPT).WeareneutraloverallonthesectorasunderDBforecastprices(whichRBPJ.J30.00to31.00-Source:DeutscheBankramp-upin2020/2021onhigherdeficits),thesectorlooksrelativelyfairlyvaluedat0.9-1.1xP:NPV(excl.Lonminat1.5x).Theproducers,exceptAmplats,areCompa
6、niesfeaturedFCF-negativeoverthemediumtermunderDBeandspotprices.Ifspotpersists,LonminPlc(LONJ.J),ZAR14.65SellnegativefreecashflowcontinuesandalltheproducershavenegativeNPVs,2016A2017E2018EexceptforAmplatsata2.4xspotP:NPV.WemaintainourviewthattheRand-DBEPS(USD
7、)-0.36-0.19-0.37priceislikelytoremainatoraroundthemarginalcostofproductionuntil2020Amplats(AMSJ.J),ZAR351.26Buyowingtoourforecastforarelativelybalancedmarket.2016A2017E2018EDBEPS(ZAR)7.1311.456.60Commodityforecasts:modest2018industrialdeficitinPtafter2yrsofs
8、urplusP/E(x)48.630.753.2Inadditiontosmalldeficits,theRand-Basketpriceremainsbelowmarginalcost,EV/EBITA(x)19.713.423.9whichtheoreticallyprovidespricesupportandhistoricallyhasappearedtodoso.ImpalaPlatinum
