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1、SAPlatinumDeutscheBankMarketsResearchSub-SaharanAfricaIndustryDateSouthAfrica15January2018SAPlatinumPlatinumRecommendationChange1Q18SAPlatinum:lookingforplatinumdemandtostabilisein2018PatrickMann,CFAStrongerRandforecastsincreaseourUSD-priceforecasts,Rand-basket
2、unchangedResearchAnalystOurRand/USDforecasts,basedontheforwardcurve,areforastronger-than-+27-11-775-7282previously-forecastRandby10%/9%,8%/6%for2018/2019/2020/2021andby4%strongerthereafter.WearenowusingaRandofR12.75/USDfor2018E.WeKeyChangesCompanyTargetPriceRat
3、ingsetourRand-basketpriceatthemarginalcostofproductioninawell-balancedLONJ.J4.90to14.60SelltoHoldmarket(whichweforecastpersistingforthemediumterm)andthusthestronger-AMSJ.J420.00to-randforecastshaveledtoanupgradetoourUSD-metalpriceforecasts.We410.00increaseourfo
4、recastpalladiumpriceby14%andplatinumby6%owingtoLMI.L27.00to85.00SelltoHoldstrongerfundamentals(adeficitmarket)forpalladiumbutleaveourRand-basketNHMJ.J56.00to58.00-priceunchanged.Asaresult,wehavemadeonlyminorchangestovaluationsRBPJ.J36.00to35.00-andourrecommendat
5、ions,exceptforLonmin,whichweupgradetoaHoldSource:DeutscheBankrecommendationandsetourpricetargetat0.967xSibanye-Stillwater's12mToppicksforwardpricetargetlessa3%discount(marketdiscountsincedealannounced).Amplats(AMSJ.J),ZAR376.01BuyGiventheSibanye-Stillwaterofferi
6、nDecember2017,webelieveLonminwilltradeSource:DeutscheBankasaproxyforitsvalueinSibanye-StillwatersharesassumingcompletionoftheCompaniesfeaturedacquisition.WeareneutraloverallonthesectorasunderDBforecastpricesLonminPlc(LONJ.J),ZAR15.01Hold(whichramp-upin2020/2021
7、onhigherdeficits),thesectorlooksrelativelyfairlyAmplats(AMSJ.J),ZAR376.01Buyvaluedat0.7-1xP:NPV.Amplats(Buy,R410ps)isbestsuitedtocopeinamarginalImpalaPlatinum(IMPJ.J),ZAR33.50Holdcostingenvironment.ItfeaturesfavourablyonthelowerendofthecostcurveandLonminPlc(LMI.
8、L),GBP87.85Hold50%ofitsbusinessisearningaprocessingmarginonpurchasedconcentrate.Northam(NHMJ.J),ZAR55.26HoldRBPlat(RBPJ.J),ZAR30.00HoldPlatinumdemandtostabilisein2018Eafter2
