德银-南非-黄金市场-南非黄金2018年展望：2018年现金流回升

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1、SAGold:outlookfor2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchSub-SaharanAfricaIndustryDateSouthAfrica29November2017SAGold:outlookforGold2018IndustryUpdateRecoveryincashflowsinto2018PatrickMann,CFAUpgradeAngloGold,GoldFieldstoBuy,HarmonytoHoldonhigherRandGoldResearchAnalystWeupdateourRandforecastsinthisnotebya

2、naverageof13%over2018E-23Ebychangingourinputstoablended30-and90-daytrailingaverage.For2018Ewe+27-11-775-7282useR14.22/USD.Thisleadstoanaverage27%increaseinourRand-basedpriceKeyChangestargetsandweupgradeAngloGoldandGoldFieldstoBuyrecommendations;CompanyTargetPriceRatingandHarmonyisupgradedfromaSe

3、lltoaHold.WeforecastthegoldsectortoANGJ.J130.00toHoldtoBuyseearecoveryinfreecashflowin2018Efromadepressedlevelin2017E,driven175.00bybothimprovedmarginsandreducedprojectcapex(2017wasaparticularlyGFIJ.J52.00to65.00HoldtoBuycapex-heavyyear).Harmonyisslightlybehindthecurveinthisregard,withSGLJ.J15.50

4、to20.00-theUS$300macquisitionofMoabKhotsongstillpending.WeforecastSibanye-HARJ.J21.00to25.00SelltoHoldStillwatertodeleveragetobelow1xnetdebttoEBITDA(fromcurrentc.2.3x)bySource:DeutscheBanktheendof2019EonbothhigherEBITDAfromStillwaterandcashgenerated;Toppickshowever,wehavethemonaHoldrecommendatio

5、n(R20psPT)aswedonotAngloGoldAshanti(ANGJ.J),ZAR140.94Buyforecastthepalladiumpricestayingaboveplatinumoverthelongerterm.AtspotGoldFields(GFIJ.J),ZAR57.79BuywederiveaR30psPTforSibanye-StillwaterandpalladiumbullsmaywellbeSource:DeutscheBankattractedtothisdeleveragingstoryastheBlitzprojectrampsupatS

6、tillwaterinCompaniesfeaturedtheUS.Keyeventstowatchforin2018includeprogressonprojectslikeKibali,AngloGoldAshanti(ANGJ.J),ZAR140.94BuyObuasi,SalaresNorte,StillwaterBlitz,HiddenValleyandGruyere;whileHarmonyGoldFields(GFIJ.J),ZAR57.79BuyhasguidedthatitwillseekUS$200mofequityfundingtocompletetheacqui

7、sitionSibanye-Stillwater(SGLJ.J),ZAR18.94HoldofMoabKhotsong.Harmony(HARJ.J),ZAR24.13HoldSource:DeutscheBankUpgradetoBuy:AngloGoldR175psPTR130psandGoldFieldsR65psPTR52Weforecastbothcompaniesreturningtopositivefreecashflowin201