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1、SouthAfrica:Theif,howandwhenofaZumaexitAuthor:Inourview,avigorousclean-upandretoolingofSouthAfrica’sgovernmentwouldrequiretheNicBorainrecallorresignationofPresidentJacobZuma.Seniorpoliticalanalystonsub-SaharanAfricaWethinkthattosustainthecurrentriseinpositivesentime
2、ntathiselection,thenewpartyleader,CyrilRamaphosa,wouldhavetoengineeratransferofpowerduringQ12018.BNPParibasSouthAfricaButthematterishighlycontestedintheAfricanNationalCongressandlookssettogiveMrRamaphosa’shisfirstmajorleadershipchallenge.ReformassumedtorequireTheSout
3、hAfricanpresidencyholdswidepowers,includingthoseofappointmentstokeyPresidentZuma’sdeparturepositionsthroughouttheeconomy,stateandgovernment.Withoutfullcontrolofthepresidency–ie,actuallyoccupyingthatoffice–therearestrictlimitsonwhatanyoneelsecandotoshapetheoutcomesofgo
4、vernment.CyrilRamaphosa,nowpresidentoftherulingAfricanNationalCongress,hasseizedthereinsofpoweravailabletohimandisrapidlysettingaboutcorrecting,whereheisable,someofstructuralimpedimentstogrowthanddamagedonetogovernanceandtheeconomyduringJacobZuma’stermsaspresidentofth
5、ecountry.Thecurrentpresidentialtermexpiresonlyafternationalelectionsinmid-2019,butithasbecomeawidespreadassumptionthatMrRamaphosa’sreformistfactionintheANCcanandmustremoveMrZumafromofficeiftheyaretoundothedamageandbuildnewsystemsofgovernanceatapacethatcanstopconfidenc
6、eandinvestmentdeclining.Indeed,attheWorldEconomicForuminDavosandelsewhere,MrRamaphosaindicatedhisintention,backedbytheANCNEC,toremoveMrZumafromofficebeforehistermisofficiallyfinishedandtodosoinamannerthatallowsMrZumatokeephisdignity.TwocentresofpowerThesignificantchan
7、geinthewakeofMrRamaphosa’selection(seeGoodnewsonthechangingANC–andgettingbetter,dated22January2015)isanartefactoftheSouthAfricanparliamentaryandpartylistsystems,thehistoryoftheANC’selectoraldominancesince1994andthefactthattheANCseesallitsmembersingovernmentandthestate
8、as‘deployees’whoserveatthewilloftheparty,answertothepartyanddothebiddingoftheparty.BecauseoftheANC’shistoryasanundergroundpa