j.p. 摩根-全球-宏观经济-全球数据观察-2017.9.29-jpmorgan-global data watch business spending pickup offsets slowing consumer

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1、Completed29Sep201708:06PMEDTDisseminated29Sep201708:08PMEDTEconomicResearchSeptember29,2017GlobalDataWatchRotationindemandtowardbusinesskeepsgrowthmomentumintactContentsPoliticalwindsareshiftinginthedirectionoffiscalstimulusnextyearGlobalconvergencehalted:Updatingto2016weights15Chinaa

2、ctstoeasecredittosmallbusinessesUStaxpolicy:ThenumbersyouNextweek:StormshitUSjobs(100k);SeptglobalPMIstayselevatedneedtoknow19Japan:Politicsheadingtoeasyfiscaldiscipline21BusinessspendingpickupoffsetsslowingconsumerBrexit:PoliticallypainfulWeremainupbeatonglobalGDPgrowth,thoughourbaseli

3、neforecastincor-piece-mealpragmatism24poratesadownshiftfromlastquarter’sboomy3.8%ar—thestrongestquarterCreditchanneltransmissioninsincemid-2010.ThismoderationbuildsinfadingpolicysupportsinAsia(no-LatAm:Pointsoffriction26tablyinChinaandJapan)andacoolinginretailandcapitalgoodsspendingIfthe

4、RBAisnoteasing,thengrowthfromitsrecenthighs.However,withthefirsthalfdeliveringasus-mustitbehiking?28China:Industrialsector'stainedsharpriseinprivatesectorconfidenceandaneasinginglobalfinancialstructuraladjustmentinprogress30conditions,wehavenotedthatlastquarter’soutcomemay,infact,signala

5、moreextendedbreakthroughabovethisexpansion’suppergrowthbound.India:Getthediagnosisright34GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4IncomingreportsconfirmthatChinaandJapanaredownshiftingthisquarter,GlobalCentralBankWatch6andalsopointtoaslowinginglobalretailspendingandmanufacturingoutputNowcastofglobal

6、growth7gains(Table1).RetailspendinggainsarepoisedtomoderateevenfurtherasSelectedrecentresearchfrom9householdsfaceapurchasingpowersqueezefromrisinginflation.WeexpectJ.P.MorganEconomicsthecombinationofhigherenergypricesandafirmingincoreinflationtopushTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10headlineCPIi

7、nflationuptowarda3%aroverthenextthreemonths,doubleDataWatchesitsaveragepaceduring1H17(Figure1).UnitedStates36Euroarea44Despitethisnews,thedataflowtracksaboveour2.9%globalGDPgrowthJapan48Canada52forecastatthestartofthisquarter.Asaresult,ourforecasthasdriftedupandMexico54no