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ID:8218052
大小:1.37 MB
页数:92页
时间:2018-03-10
《j.p. 摩根-全球-宏观经济-全球数据观察-2017.9.29-jpmorgan-global data watch business spending pickup offsets slowing consumer》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Completed29Sep201708:06PMEDTDisseminated29Sep201708:08PMEDTEconomicResearchSeptember29,2017GlobalDataWatchRotationindemandtowardbusinesskeepsgrowthmomentumintactContentsPoliticalwindsareshiftinginthedirectionoffiscalstimulusnextyearGlobalconvergencehalted:Updatingto2016weights15Chinaa
2、ctstoeasecredittosmallbusinessesUStaxpolicy:ThenumbersyouNextweek:StormshitUSjobs(100k);SeptglobalPMIstayselevatedneedtoknow19Japan:Politicsheadingtoeasyfiscaldiscipline21BusinessspendingpickupoffsetsslowingconsumerBrexit:PoliticallypainfulWeremainupbeatonglobalGDPgrowth,thoughourbaseli
3、neforecastincor-piece-mealpragmatism24poratesadownshiftfromlastquarter’sboomy3.8%ar—thestrongestquarterCreditchanneltransmissioninsincemid-2010.ThismoderationbuildsinfadingpolicysupportsinAsia(no-LatAm:Pointsoffriction26tablyinChinaandJapan)andacoolinginretailandcapitalgoodsspendingIfthe
4、RBAisnoteasing,thengrowthfromitsrecenthighs.However,withthefirsthalfdeliveringasus-mustitbehiking?28China:Industrialsector'stainedsharpriseinprivatesectorconfidenceandaneasinginglobalfinancialstructuraladjustmentinprogress30conditions,wehavenotedthatlastquarter’soutcomemay,infact,signala
5、moreextendedbreakthroughabovethisexpansion’suppergrowthbound.India:Getthediagnosisright34GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4IncomingreportsconfirmthatChinaandJapanaredownshiftingthisquarter,GlobalCentralBankWatch6andalsopointtoaslowinginglobalretailspendingandmanufacturingoutputNowcastofglobal
6、growth7gains(Table1).RetailspendinggainsarepoisedtomoderateevenfurtherasSelectedrecentresearchfrom9householdsfaceapurchasingpowersqueezefromrisinginflation.WeexpectJ.P.MorganEconomicsthecombinationofhigherenergypricesandafirmingincoreinflationtopushTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10headlineCPIi
7、nflationuptowarda3%aroverthenextthreemonths,doubleDataWatchesitsaveragepaceduring1H17(Figure1).UnitedStates36Euroarea44Despitethisnews,thedataflowtracksaboveour2.9%globalGDPgrowthJapan48Canada52forecastatthestartofthisquarter.Asaresult,ourforecasthasdriftedupandMexico54no
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