j.p. 摩根-全球-宏观经济-全球数据观察-2017.9.8-jpmorgan-global data watch so much depends on inflation

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1、Completed08Sep201708:06PMEDTDisseminated08Sep201708:16PMEDTEconomicResearchSeptember8,2017GlobalDataWatchFedandECBcautiousbutifourcallisrightandinflationrises,theyContentswillnormalizeandmarketswillneedtocorrectEM'semploymenttrendsdancingtoChinaimportsup,supportingrestofregiondiffere

2、nttunes14AntipodeancentralbankstostayNAFTAtalksdeliverpositivetonebutfewdetailsstuckbelowneutral17NorthKorea:Thecontinuingstory21Upnext:UScoreCPI(0.16%),retailsales(0.2%);ChinaIP(0.7%)Hungary:TheNBH'smissionimpossible23SomuchdependsoninflationGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4Theglobaleco

3、nomyishumming,withgrowthsolidandthelatestdatasuggestingGlobalCentralBankWatch6continuedupsiderisktoourforecastfora3%annualizedGDPgainthisquarter.AsNowcastofglobalgrowth7reportedthisweek,inAugusttheglobalall-industryPMItickeduptoalevelcon-Selectedrecentresearchfrom8sistentwith3.2%global

4、GDPgrowth.Thisfollowsonlastweek’sfirmingintheJ.P.MorganEconomicsmanufacturingPMI,whichpointstoanevenmorerobust3.4%jumpinglobalfac-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9toryoutput.And,ourglobalGDPnowcasteristrackingaquarterpercentagepointDataWatchesstrongerthanourbottom-upoutlook.Anexpectedquick,al

5、beittemporary,resolu-UnitedStates26Euroarea33tiontotheUSfiscalfundinganddebtceilingshowdownalsoisawelcomerelief.Japan37Canada41ThereboundinChina’simportsinAugustisalsoencouraging.AlthoughweMexico43forecastamoderationinChinaGDPgrowththisquarter,itshouldbepositiveBrazil45forglobalactivit

6、y(andglobalcommodityprices),asthisslowingcomesArgentina47largelyfromanettradedrag.TheAugusttradereportisconsistentwiththisColombia,Peru,Chile49assessment,asimportsrose7.1%followinglastquarter’slargedecline.UnitedKingdom51EmergingEurope53StrongerChinademandforforeigngoodslookstobesuppor

7、tingthereboundSouthAfrica&SSA58underwayinAsianindustryandglobalmetalsprices(Figure1).WelookforMENA60nextweek’sChinaAugustactivitydatatoshowsolidmonthlygainsinIPEMEAEMfocus61(0.6%)andretailsales(0.9%)aftertheJulydisappointment.AustraliaandNewZealand62China,HongKong,andTaiwan64Despitep