j.p. 摩根-全球宏观经济数据观察-20170901-jpmorgan-global data watch breaking good

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1、Completed01Sep201709:29PMEDTDisseminated01Sep201709:34PMEDTEconomicResearchSeptember1,2017GlobalDataWatchIn2Q17,globalGDPexpandedatfastestpaceinsevenyearsContentsAugustPMIsshowsolidmomentuminto3Q17;EMAsialeadsthewayUS:Theeconomicsoftheimpendingfiscalbattles14UpsiderisksinEMAsiaandEu

2、ropeoffsetsomewhatbydownsideinUS:Wakeoftheflood—InitialJapanthoughtsonHarvey'simpact18Euroarea:GDPrevisionsmatterNextweek:ECBbeginsQEtaper-talk,RBAonhold,COPOM-100bpandarepredictable20Riksbank:Strongerpressure,littleresponse22BreakinggoodAUD:WhyfairvaluemattersforBehindtheheadlinesand

3、anxietysurroundingUSpolicyuncertaintiesandEuropeaninflation24politicalrisksearlythisyear,theglobalreflationdynamicthatbeganinmid-2016isChina:Assessingtheimpactoftheprovingitselfapowerfulgrowthenginewithmorefuelinthetank.Relativetoex-taxreductioneffort26pectationsearlyintheyear(anddespi

4、teadisappointingstart),1H17globalgrowthPhilippines:Allaboardthefiscalsurprisedtotheupsideby0.5%-pt—runningatarobust3.3%.Despitethisstronger-TRAIN28India'simport-accelerationthan-anticipatedstrength,ouroutlooksawglobalgrowthcappedbythe3.25%upperpuzzle:It’snotwhatyouthink30boundofthepast

5、sixyears.However,globalGDPnowlookstohavebrokendeci-sivelyabovethisboundlastquarter,jumping3.8%annualized—itsfastestgrowthGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4sincemid-2010.Whileweremaincautiousgiventhenear-termuncertaintiesaroundGlobalCentralBankWatch6USfiscaldevelopmentsinSeptember,Fed/ECBbal

6、ancesheetannouncements,andNowcastofglobalgrowth7anexpectedslowinginChina,finaldemandindicatorscontinuetoholdupwhileourSelectedrecentresearchfrom8globalPMIssuggestthestrongmomentumcontinuedthroughAugust(Figure1).J.P.MorganEconomicsOnbalance,ourglobalGDPnowcasteristrackinga3.3%annualized

7、gainthisquar-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9ter—abitaboveourbottom-upforecastof3.1%.DataWatchesUnitedStates32Euroarea39Thebreakoutingrowthreflectsthreepositivedevelopments.First,thecautionJapan45thathasweighedonbothbusinessandhouseholdspendingbehaviorhasfad-Canada49ed,translatingintoanota