j.p. 摩根-全球-宏观经济-全球数据观察-2017.9.22-jpmorgan-global data watch first we take manhattan, then we take berlin

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1、Completed22Sep201709:38PMEDTDisseminated22Sep201709:42PMEDTEconomicResearchSeptember22,2017GlobalDataWatchDMcentralbanksgainconfidencetomovetowardtheexitContents3QmoderationinglobalIPgrowthlikelyexaggeratedUK:ThecaseforfurtherBoETentativesignsthatChina’scorporatede

2、bt/GDPislevelingofftighteningin201815AprimeronItalianpoliticsaheadNextweek:US2QGDP(3.4%);UScorePCE(1.3%);JPNIP+2%ofnextyear'selection17China:Corporatedeleveragingenteringanewphase21FirstwetakeManhattan,thenwetakeBerlinArgentina:ThelabormarkettakesOurmacroeconomicoutl

3、ookseestheglobalreflationstorynowenteringitsse-thespotlight25condchapter.Thefirstbeganinmid-2016whendragsonnominalgrowthcen-GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4teredintheemergingmarketsandcommodityindustriesbegantofade.SincethenGlobalCentralBankWatch6globalGDPhasdeliveredcon

4、sistentabove-trendoutcomesandupsidesurprises.Nowcastofglobalgrowth7Inflationalsohasrisenthoughbylessthanexpected.Webelievethis“additionbySelectedrecentresearchfromsubtraction”chapterofthestoryisnowtransitioningintoatraditionalbusiness9J.P.MorganEconomicscycleupturnast

5、hefadingofdragssparksaself-reinforcingdynamicwhereTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10strongerandbroadergrowthliftsprivatesectorconfidenceandassetprices.TobeDataWatchessure,theunfoldingdownshiftinChinaisatemperingforcethatmaypreventglob-UnitedStates27alGDPgrowthfrombreakingthr

6、oughthelow-3sceilingfortheexpansiontodateEuroarea34(Figure1).However,risksskewtowardabreakthrough.AlthoughweforecastthatJapan38DMcoreinflationbreachesthisexpansion’supperbound,risksareskewedtotheCanada42downsideasrecentdisappointmentsraiseconcernsthatrelationshipstyin

7、ggrowthMexico44Brazil46andlabormarketstoinflationmayhavechanged.Argentina48ColombiaandPeru50Thisreflationarytiltiswelcomenewstocentralbankersthathavebeenstriv-UnitedKingdom52ingforthisoutcomeforafulldecade.PastdisappointmentswarrantedcautionEmergingEurope54duringthefi

8、rstchapterofthereflationstory,butcentralbanksarestartingtoSouthAfrica&SSA57feelcomfortablethatthemacroeconomiclandscapehasch