j.p.摩根-全球宏观经济数据解读-2017.8.4-global data watch goldilocks and the margin of error

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1、Completed04Aug201707:13PMEDTDisseminated04Aug201707:17PMEDTEconomicResearchAugust4,2017GlobalDataWatchDouble-digitprofitbouncetobefollowedbysteady7%argainsContentsEMpolicyconvergencecominglargelyfromhighyieldersUS:Canconsumerscarrythatweightalongtime?14Euroareainflationfirms,butpathaheadstilllo

2、ngUS:TightstatelabormarketsshowNextweek:SteadyChinatrade;lowerUSULCandfirmercoreCPIeffectsonwagegrowth16RapidlyapproachingourEuroareaNAIRUestimate18GoldilocksandthemarginoferrorTheimpactofcurrencychangesonRelativeincomemovementsreflectbusinesscycleconditionsbutcanalsobecomeEuroareainflation20akey

3、driverofthecycle—apointunderscoredinrecentyears.DisinflationaryChile:5reasonsforBCChtodragsgeneratedbyEMcreditandglobalcommodityshocksof2014-16droveafurthereasemonetarypolicy22rotationinincomethatsawcorporateprofitsfallfortwoconsecutiveyears,reduc-Australianmortgagedebt:It'stheingglobalcapex(ex.Ch

4、ina).Asthesedragsfaded,aprofitreboundfueledgrowthprincipalofthematter24throughitsimpactonbusinessspending,sentiment,andglobalfinancialcondi-GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4tions.WhilewehadexpectedarotationinincomebacktocorporatestoreinforceGlobalCentralBankWatch6ourglobalreflationtheme,themagnitudeof

5、theprofitbouncehasbeensurprising.Nowcastofglobalgrowth7Atmidyear,ourmeasureofglobalcorporateprofitsisup25%oya,twicewhatweSelectedrecentresearchfromhadexpected(Figure1).Theprofitrecoveryhasbeenbroad-basedacrossregionsJ.P.MorganEconomics8andsectorsandhasbeenthecatalystforahealthypickupinglobalcapexa

6、ndhir-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9ing(see“GlobalGDPpricingliftsprofits,”July23,2017.)DataWatchesUnitedStates26Profitsaligncloselywithrevenuegrowth(nominalGDP),butmarginswingsEuroarea34areanadditionaldeterminantwhoseswingshavebeenimportantthisexpan-Japan38sion.Althoughlaborbargainingpowerwasweakafter

7、thegreatrecession,ourCanada42Mexico44globalcorporatemarginsdeclinedfrom2010-16aslimitedpricingpowerandBrazil46aslideinproductivitygrowthdampedprofitability(see“ProfitstallthreatensArgentina48globalexpansion,”June