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ID:8218985
大小:1.39 MB
页数:84页
时间:2018-03-10
《j.p.摩根-全球宏观经济数据解读-2017.8.4-global data watch goldilocks and the margin of error》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Completed04Aug201707:13PMEDTDisseminated04Aug201707:17PMEDTEconomicResearchAugust4,2017GlobalDataWatchDouble-digitprofitbouncetobefollowedbysteady7%argainsContentsEMpolicyconvergencecominglargelyfromhighyieldersUS:Canconsumerscarrythatweightalongtime?14Euroareainflationfirms,butpathaheadstilllo
2、ngUS:TightstatelabormarketsshowNextweek:SteadyChinatrade;lowerUSULCandfirmercoreCPIeffectsonwagegrowth16RapidlyapproachingourEuroareaNAIRUestimate18GoldilocksandthemarginoferrorTheimpactofcurrencychangesonRelativeincomemovementsreflectbusinesscycleconditionsbutcanalsobecomeEuroareainflation20akey
3、driverofthecycle—apointunderscoredinrecentyears.DisinflationaryChile:5reasonsforBCChtodragsgeneratedbyEMcreditandglobalcommodityshocksof2014-16droveafurthereasemonetarypolicy22rotationinincomethatsawcorporateprofitsfallfortwoconsecutiveyears,reduc-Australianmortgagedebt:It'stheingglobalcapex(ex.Ch
4、ina).Asthesedragsfaded,aprofitreboundfueledgrowthprincipalofthematter24throughitsimpactonbusinessspending,sentiment,andglobalfinancialcondi-GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4tions.WhilewehadexpectedarotationinincomebacktocorporatestoreinforceGlobalCentralBankWatch6ourglobalreflationtheme,themagnitudeof
5、theprofitbouncehasbeensurprising.Nowcastofglobalgrowth7Atmidyear,ourmeasureofglobalcorporateprofitsisup25%oya,twicewhatweSelectedrecentresearchfromhadexpected(Figure1).Theprofitrecoveryhasbeenbroad-basedacrossregionsJ.P.MorganEconomics8andsectorsandhasbeenthecatalystforahealthypickupinglobalcapexa
6、ndhir-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9ing(see“GlobalGDPpricingliftsprofits,”July23,2017.)DataWatchesUnitedStates26Profitsaligncloselywithrevenuegrowth(nominalGDP),butmarginswingsEuroarea34areanadditionaldeterminantwhoseswingshavebeenimportantthisexpan-Japan38sion.Althoughlaborbargainingpowerwasweakafter
7、thegreatrecession,ourCanada42Mexico44globalcorporatemarginsdeclinedfrom2010-16aslimitedpricingpowerandBrazil46aslideinproductivitygrowthdampedprofitability(see“ProfitstallthreatensArgentina48globalexpansion,”June
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