j.p.摩根-全球宏观经济数据解读

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1、GlobalDataWatchFedandECBcautiousbutifourcallisrightandinflationrises,theywillnormalizeandmarketswillneedtocorrectChinaimportsup,supportingrestofregionNAFTAtalksdeliverpositivetonebutfewdetailsUpnext:UScoreCPI(0.16%),retailsales(0.2%);ChinaIP(0.7%)SomuchdependsoninflationTheglobaleconomyishumming

2、,withgrowthsolidandthelatestdatasuggestingcontinuedupsiderisktoourforecastfora3%annualizedGDPgainthisquarter.Asreportedthisweek,inAugusttheglobalall-industryPMItickeduptoalevelcon-sistentwith3.2%globalGDPgrowth.Thisfollowsonlastweek’sfirminginthemanufacturingPMI,whichpointstoanevenmorerobust3.4%jump

3、inglobalfac-toryoutput.And,ourglobalGDPnowcasteristrackingaquarterpercentagepointstrongerthanourbottom-upoutlook.Anexpectedquick,albeittemporary,resolu-tiontotheUSfiscalfundinganddebtceilingshowdownalsoisawelcomerelief.ThereboundinChina’simportsinAugustisalsoencouraging.Althoughweforecastamoderation

4、inChinaGDPgrowththisquarter,itshouldbepositiveforglobalactivity(andglobalcommodityprices),asthisslowingcomeslargelyfromanettradedrag.TheAugusttradereportisconsistentwiththisassessment,asimportsrose7.1%followinglastquarter’slargedecline.StrongerChinademandforforeigngoodslookstobesupportingthereboundu

5、nderwayinAsianindustryandglobalmetalsprices(Figure1).Welookfornextweek’sChinaAugustactivitydatatoshowsolidmonthlygainsinIP(0.6%)andretailsales(0.9%)aftertheJulydisappointment.Despitepositiveglobalgrowthsignals,marketsappeartohavelostfaithinaFed-ledratenormalization.ArallyintheUS2yrTreasurythisweekha

6、spushedtheyieldbacktoitslowestlevelrelativetotheFedIOERsincemid-2013.Indeed,atcurrentpricing,marketsseeeffectivelynoneedforfurtherFedratehikesforthenexttwoyears(Figure2).SeveralFOMCmembersechoedthisrisingangstthisweek,indicatingthattheywouldneedevidenceinflationwasgettingbackontrackbeforecontemplati

7、ngfurtherratehikes.Asaresult,muchdependsontheinflationoutlook.Persistentlylowinflationwoulddomorethanvalidatemarketpricing;itwouldforceamajorFedre-thinkofwhatisdrivinginflation.Ifinstead,wearerighttha