j.p.摩根-全球经济数据解读-2017.6.30

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1、Completed30Jun201708:39PMEDTDisseminated30Jun201708:40PMEDTEconomicResearchJune30,2017GlobalDataWatchMarketsfocusonlowinflationascentralbankspointtonormalizationContentsSolidgrowthshoulddeliverexpectedmovesfromFed,ECB,andBoCCreditgrowthslows,reinforcingalreadytamecycle14Butsus

2、tainednormalizationrequiresevidencecoreinflationisrisingEuroarea:Loweringourcoreinflationforecast18Nextweek:GlobalPMIdipsandUSemploymentsteadies(150k)Japan:Laborshortagewillnotboostwagegrowthsoon20Weholdthesetruthstobeself-evident...fornowUK:AttemptingtounderstandtheBoE'shawkish

3、shift24Theglobaleconomyhasdeliveredayearofabove-trendgrowthandslackAustralia:Wagerecoverystillacontinuestodeclinerapidly.TheDMunemploymentratehasdropped0.4%-distantprospect26ptoverthepastyear.At5.7%,thisnowalignswiththepeakofthelastexpan-GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4sion(Figure1)

4、.WithconfidencebuildingthatsolidgrowthcanbesustainedGlobalCentralBankWatch6amidtightlabormarkets,itisnosurprisethatDMcentralbanksarenowpre-Nowcastofglobalgrowth7paringmarketsforpolicynormalization.TheFedissignalingitisreadytoSelectedrecentresearchfromreduceitsbalancesheetalongsid

5、econtinuedratenormalization.ECBgover-8J.P.MorganEconomicsnorDraghiwasupbeatthisweek,hintingthatpolicysettingsmaybetailoredTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9toimprovingconditions.WhilewebelieveaweakUKconsumerwillstaytheBoE’shand,theBank’srecentcommunicationispreparingmarketsforapos-DataWa

6、tchesUnitedStates28sibleratehike.AndstrongCanadianactivityreadings—werevisedupcurrentEuroarea36quarterGDPgrowthtoanannualized2.8%thisweek—haspromptedtheBoCJapan40tosignalthatitsfirsthikewillcomesoon.Canada44Mexico46Behindthisshiftinrhetoriciscentralbanks’recognitionthatpolicynorm

7、alizationBrazil48willbematerialandchallenging.Indeed,DMlabormarketshavereturnedto2008Argentina50levelsbutpolicyratesareroughly350bpbelowthepreviouspeak(Figure2).G-4Peru52centralbankbalancesheetshave,atthesametime,expandedbycloseto30%-ptsUnitedKingdom54EmergingEurope56relativetoGD

8、P.Thecaseforthisextraordinarydegreeofacc