j.p.摩根-宏观-全球经济体数据解读

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1、Completed21Jul201708:32PMEDTDisseminated21Jul201708:35PMEDTEconomicResearchJuly21,2017GlobalDataWatchStronggrowthandlowinflationchallengeDMCBsContentsChina’smidyearstrengthtoboostAsianindustrythisquarterUS:Don'tletthemoneyfoolyou14Colombiadebtdynamics:WhatwentDollarweaknessandrisk

2、appetitepromoteEMmonetaryeasingupmaynotgodown16Nextweek:GDPreports;FOMConhold;BrazilandRussiaeaseIndia:Twonarratives20GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4WhycentralbankersgetpaidthebigbucksGlobalCentralBankWatch6DMgrowthhasbeenapercentagepointabovepotentialforafullyearnowanditsNowcastofglo

3、balgrowth7labormarketsareclosetofullemployment.WithglobalindicatorspointingtoSelectedrecentresearchfrom8strengthandsynchronizationatmidyear,andfinancialconditionssupportive,thereJ.P.MorganEconomicsiseveryreasontoexpectlabormarketstotightenfurther.Whilethisprovidesincen-TheJ.P.MorganV

4、iew:Markets9tivesforDMcentralbankerstonormalizetheirhighlyaccommodativepolicystanc-DataWatcheses,inflationdynamicsarethrowingaspannerintheworks.CoreCPIinflationre-UnitedStates22Euroarea29mainslowandisnotrespondingtolabormarkettighteninginthemannercentralJapan33bankmodelswouldpredict.

5、WiththenotableexceptionoftheUK,G-4centralCanada37bankershaverecentlyloweredtheirinflationforecastsandareshowingconcernthatMexico39inflationwillnotreturntotargetanytimesoon.Indeed,theBoJpushedbackitstime-Brazil41linetoreachits2%inflationobjectivetoFY2019thisweek.EightofnineboardArgent

6、ina43Colombia45membersbelievethattheriskstothisinflationforecastareskewedtothedownside.UnitedKingdom47EmergingEurope49Notwithstandingtheambiguityintheguidanceof“relativelysoon”and“au-SouthAfrica&SSA52tumn”respectivelyforFedandECBbalancesheetannouncements,itisclearEMEAEMfocus54thatinf

7、lationconcernsarenotderailingplanstoendtherapidexpansionofAustraliaandNewZealand55G-4centralbankbalancesheets,whichrosenearly$4trillionover2016-17China,HongKong,andTaiwan57(Figure1).TheFedhassignaleditwillstartunwindingbeforeyear-endandKorea61ASEAN63thisweek’snoncommittalECBisstillon

8、tracktoendit