j.p. 摩根-全球-宏观经济-全球数据观察

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1、Completed13Oct201707:55PMEDTDisseminated13Oct201707:59PMEDTEconomicResearchOctober13,2017GlobalDataWatchUnderlyinginflationlagsbroad-basedpickupinactivityindicatorsContentsDownsiderisksfromNAFTAandBrexittickhigherGlobalgrowthpickupisasbroadGermanuniontalkshintatw

2、ageinflation;CE4coreontheriseasitisimpressive15US:ConsumerspasstheirtriennialNextweek:China3QGDP(6.2%),SepIP(0.8%);USSepIP(0.5%)financialcheckup18Thechallengeisinthemoment:NowcastingJapanGDP20BreakonthroughtothebroadersideAustralia:Capex,currencyandtheThesustainedd

3、rumbeatofpositiveactivityindicatorsnudgedour3Q17glob-curve23alGDPforecastshigheragainthisweek.AnupwardrevisiontoourprojectionGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4forUSgrowthlastquarterto3%arpushesourtrackingofthepasttwoquar-GlobalCentralBankWatch6ters’globalgrowthtoa3.5%ann

4、ualizedpace—afullpercentagepointaboveNowcastofglobalgrowth7ourestimateofpotential.AlthoughbriefepisodesofstrengthfollowedbySelectedrecentresearchfromslowinghavemarkedtheexpansion,ourconfidenceishighthattheglobal9J.P.MorganEconomicseconomyisinastrong,sustainedgrowthp

5、haseforthefirsttimethisexpan-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10sion.BolsteringourconfidenceistherecognitionthatthegrowthupturnisDataWatchesglobal,reflectingthefadingofdisinflationarydragsconcentratedinEMandUnitedStates25fromcommodities.Justasthesedragsgeneratedwidesectoral

6、andregionalEuroarea31divergencesover2014-16,theirfadinghasrebalancedglobalperformanceJapan35(seetheresearchnote“Globalgrowthpickupisasbroadasitisimpressive”Canada39Mexico41inthisGDW).Indeed,75%ofthecountriesinourglobalaggregatehavegen-Brazil43eratedabove-trendgrowth

7、overthepastyear,andsimilarbreadthisevidentinArgentina45thepickupinmanufacturingandprivatesectordemand.UnitedKingdom47EmergingEurope49Althoughtheinitialimpulsesarelikelyfading,thepositivefeedbackonbehaviorEMEAEMfocus53isstillsupportinggrowthaccordingtothelatestindica

8、tors.MostnotableistheAustraliaandNewZealand54broad-basedstrengthinbusinessspendingandconfidencethisquarter,indicatingChina,HongKong,andTai