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1、GlobalDataWatch·ContinueddownwardrevisionstogrowthandCBrateforecasts·BoJnowexpectedtocutratesto-0.3%asglobalsupportfades·TheECBturnsdovishbutisnotclosetoeasing·Nextweek:mixedChinaactivity,solidUSretailsalesinMayRefriedconfusionismakingitselfclearEvenbeforethetradeconflictheatedupinM
2、ay,globalgrowthwasweigheddownbygeopoliticaluncertaintydepressingbusinesssentiment.Thelatestnewssuggeststhatthisdragremainssignificantaswemovetowardmidyear.Ourcapexnowcasterpointstoacontractionthisquarter,whiletheMaymanufacturingPMIpointstoanunderlyingtrajectoryofbelow-1%growthinfact
3、oryoutput.Thisdraghasbeencontainedthusfarasemploymentandconsumerspendinggainsremainfirm.However,MayreleasesshowtheglobalservicesPMIfallingsharplyandpointtoslowinginUSandChinaemploymentgrowth.Wehaveincorporatedexpectationsofamoderationinhiringandservicesec-torgrowthinourforecast,butn
4、otanintensifiedtradewarfromhere.Ataminimum,thedragonconfidenceshoulddeepenascompaniesquestionthestabilityoftherules-basedglobaltradingorder.Whilewehavefocusedonthisindirectgrowthrisk,asignificantdirectdragfromrisingtariffsisagrow-ingpossibility.Attheendoflastyear,tariffshikesreprese
5、ntedasmall0.3%-pttaxonUShouseholdincomes(Figure1,Table1).However,thispotentialtaxonUSwouldriseto1%thisyeariftariffsareimposedonallimportsfromChina.Itwouldfurtherdoubleinsizeifthethreatened25%tariffsonautosandMexicowereimposed.Amidthefogoftradewar,therearetwopointsofclarityforthenear
6、-termoutlook.First,globalgrowthislikelytoslipbelowitspotentialpacethroughyear-end,andweareloweringforecaststoreflectthisoutcome.OntheheelsofdownwardrevisionstotheUSandChina,andotherlargeEMeconomieslastmonth,weloweredgrowthforecaststhisweekinWesternEurope,JapanandCanada.Atpresent,wef
7、orecast2.5%annualizedglobalGDPgrowthfrom2Q-4Q,down0.5%-ptfromthestartoftheyear.Thesecondpointofconvictionisthatpolicysupportsshouldbeforthcoming.Lastweek’schangetoincorporate50bpofFedeasingthisyearhasbeenEconomicResearchJune7,2019ContentsUS-Chinatariffs:Outofthefryingpan…16EMmoneta
8、rypolicy:Easycomeea
