全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察

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1、GlobalDataWatch·Globalfiscalpolicyisshiftingtowardsa0.3%-ptgrowthboostin2019·Chinanewspointstostabilizationandpolicyeaseinpipeline·DownsideriskscontinuetobuildinWesternEurope·Nextweek:EuroareaPMIandJapanexportsrebound;SARBhikesThetensionbetweenpolicyandpoliticsTheglobaleconomyhasdeli

2、veredabove-trendgrowthandamodestriseininflationthisyear.However,ourviewthatthiswillbesustainedisbeingchal-lenged.IncreasingdependenceonUSdemandisthemostprominenttension.3Q18GDPreportspointtostrikingDMdivergencesastheUSgrewata3.5%annualizedrate—withafasterthan9%gaininimportvolumes—whi

3、leGer-manyandJapancontractedandItalystalled.ChinadownshiftedandTurkeyandArgentinatumbled,pullingEMgrowthtoitsslowestpaceintwoyears.Tensionalsoisbuildinginthepolicyspace.Alreadymeaningfulmonetaryandfiscalpolicysupportsmayinfactbeincreasing.AlthoughtheFedseemscommittedtonormalizingthes

4、tanceofUSmonetarypolicy,policyrateshavehardlyrisenelse-whereandtheoverallglobalstanceremainshighlyaccommodativewithrealpolicyratesstillnegative.Atthesametime,amarkedshiftinglobalfiscalpolicyisunder-way,asrecentactionsinEuropeandChinaaddtoearlier-announcedUSease.Wenowlookforfiscalpoli

5、cytoadd0.3%toglobalGDPnextyear,thelargestpositiveimpulsethisdecade(Figure1).Thisaccommodationis,however,linkedtogrowingcross-borderpoliticalconflicts.China’seasingisadirectresponsetothethreatofUStariffhikesandtheregionalconflictgeneratedbyItaly’sfiscalstimulusistight-eningitsfinancia

6、lconditions.Morebroadly,weareconcernedthatbusinessexpec-tationsarenowweakeningasaresultofrisinggeopoliticalrisk.Theinflationnewsalsopresentsachallenge.GlobalCPIinflationhasmovedhigherthisyear,butourexpectationforasteepeningoftheDMpricePhillipscurvehasyettomaterialize.Globalinflationh

7、asrisenonthebackofrisingenergypricesandaspikeincoreinflationinthoseEMeconomiessufferingsharpcurrencydepreciation.IntheDM,energypricegainspushedheadlineinflationupto2.3%oyalastquarter—thehighestreadinginsixyears—whilecoreinflationremainsat1.5%oya,unchangedfromend-2017(Figure2).Facingt

8、hesechalleng