全球-宏观策略-全球数据观察

《全球-宏观策略-全球数据观察》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、GlobalDataWatch·DMcoreinflationisacceleratingbutlatestreadingshavedisappointed·2Q18globalGDPforecastat3.7%ar,onbackofDMrevisionsup·Chinalikelytolimititscurrencyslidefromhere·Nextweek:USGDPbounce(4.4%);flashPMIs;CBRT(+125bp);ECBAmodestbutunevenliftincoreinflationLastmo

2、nth’syear-agoreadingsonglobalandDMinflationstoodatthehigh-estlevelsinsixyears,at2.6%and2.3%respectively.Thisnewsisnot,how-ever,asignalthatglobalinflationhasnormalized.WhenthevolatileCPIfoodandenergycomponentsareremovedfromthesereadings,globalandDMcoreinflationarestill

3、lowandremaininlinewiththeiraveragesinrecentyears.ItistheDMwhereweexpectedanupwardtrajectoryincoreinflationtotakeholdthisyearasadeflationaryimpulsefromEMhasfadedandunemploy-mentrateshavefallentonearly40-yearlows.Inaddition,wearereceivingconfirmationinourviewthatglobali

4、ndustryispickingupintomidyearandtheUSdemandenginehasshiftedintohighgear.Weforecastnextweek’sadvancereporttoshowthatUSGDProseata4.4%arlastquarter.Consistentwiththemacroeconomicbackdrop,welookforDMcoreinflationtoincreaseto1.8%thisyear.In1H18,DMcoreinflationpickedupmodes

5、tly,toa1.6%ar,withJunereadingsgenerallydisappointing.Tworecentinflationdevelopmentsareworthnoting:·USandEuroareatrackwhileJapandisappoints.Throughavolatilemonthlypattern,USandEuroareacoreinflationhavetrackedclosetoourforecastsfortheyear(Table1).However,otherDMeconomie

6、shavedisap-pointed.Japanstandsoutascorepricesfellduring1H18,asharpcontrasttoourforecastforaccelerationatthestartoftheyear.Evenafterasignificantdowngradetoour2018forecastinrecentmonths,Japaneseinflationwillneedtodelivera2H18overshoottohitour0.6%forecastfortheyearasawho

7、le.·Anabsenceofanexpectedpickupincoregoodspriceinflation.Weex-pectedthisyear’sDMcoreinflationrisetobeconcentratedingoodspricesassynchronizedstrengthinglobalgoodssectoractivityincreasedproducerpricingpower.Intheevent,manufacturingoutputdownshiftedatthestartoftheyearand

8、anascentriseinDMgoodspriceswashalted(Figure1).Ariseincoreservicepriceinflationpartiallyhasoffsetthisdisappointment.Economic