全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察.docx

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1、GlobalDataWatch·Industrialslowdownlikelytoreverse,businesscautionagreaterthreat·EMAsiatechcycleendsearly,Chinatradelookssoft·Euroareacoreinflationfirmedbutunderlyingpaceremainsaconcern·Nextweek:QuietFOMC,ChinatradeslowsinOct,All-industryPMIsButcloudsgotinmywayDespitesome

2、recoveryinriskmarketsthisweek,datacontinuetopointtoslowingmomentuminglobalindustry.SeptemberIPreadingsgenerallydis-appointedandglobalmanufacturingoutputgainsslowedtoa1.7%arlastquarter.OurOctoberglobalPMImanufacturingoutputreadingalsoslippedtoitslowestlevelinmorethantwoye

3、ars.Asmomentumswingsinthemanufac-turingsectoroftenarealeadingedgeofturnsinthebroaderbusinesscycle,thisnewschallengesourviewthatbothmanufacturingandglobalGDPwillcontinuetogrowatanabove-trendpaceinthecomingquarters.Lookingmorecloselyatthedata,thesignalsaremixed.Thisweek’sr

4、eportedOctoberreboundinGermanautoproductionandupbeatprojectionsofJapa-nesemanufacturerssupportourviewthatthepowerfultemporarydragsonglobalindustrylastquarterarepoisedtolift.Thisweek’sUSOctoberreportsalsopointtocontinuedsolidIPgains.Takingthesetogetherwiththesteadysolidga

5、insinourglobalfinalgoodsdemandproxy,weremainconfidentthatfactoryoutputisontracktoacceleratetowarda3%arthisquarter(Figure1).Whilewelcome,thisnear-termliftisatriskofbeingunderminedbythreatsfromthecloudsonthehorizon:·Asiatechmomentumslippedearlierthanexpected.Despitethedrag

6、fromslowingChinademand,weexpecttechactivityinEmergingAsiatobeboostedin2H18bystrongglobalcapexgains.Weexpectedamobile-deviceproductcycletoprovideanaddedboostbeforewaninglaterthisquarter.Thelatestnewsshowsproductionandexportgainsalreadymoder-atingaslastquarterended(Figure2

7、).ThefallinDRAMpricesandKoreansemiconductorexportslastmontharefurthersignsofsoftness.·Thewarontrade’shittosentimentloomslarge.Intrackingthedragfromrisingtradetensions,wehavefocusedontheindirectimpactthroughsentiment.Wedidnotexpectthisdragtoaffectcurrentperformanceandasar

8、esult,weturntobusinessexpectationsasagauge.SurveydatanowEconomicResearchNovember2,2018Contents18202416