j.p.摩根-宏观-全球经济体数据解读-2017.7.21-global data watch why central bankers get paid the big bucks

《j.p.摩根-宏观-全球经济体数据解读-2017.7.21-global data watch why central bankers get paid the big bucks》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Completed21Jul201708:32PMEDTDisseminated21Jul201708:35PMEDTEconomicResearchJuly21,2017GlobalDataWatchStronggrowthandlowinflationchallengeDMCBsContentsChina’smidyearstrengthtoboostAsianindustrythisquarterUS:Don'tletthemoneyfoolyou14Colombiadebtdynamics:Whatwe

2、ntDollarweaknessandriskappetitepromoteEMmonetaryeasingupmaynotgodown16Nextweek:GDPreports;FOMConhold;BrazilandRussiaeaseIndia:Twonarratives20GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4WhycentralbankersgetpaidthebigbucksGlobalCentralBankWatch6DMgrowthhasbeenapercentagepoin

3、tabovepotentialforafullyearnowanditsNowcastofglobalgrowth7labormarketsareclosetofullemployment.WithglobalindicatorspointingtoSelectedrecentresearchfrom8strengthandsynchronizationatmidyear,andfinancialconditionssupportive,thereJ.P.MorganEconomicsiseveryreasonto

4、expectlabormarketstotightenfurther.Whilethisprovidesincen-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9tivesforDMcentralbankerstonormalizetheirhighlyaccommodativepolicystanc-DataWatcheses,inflationdynamicsarethrowingaspannerintheworks.CoreCPIinflationre-UnitedStates22Euroarea29m

5、ainslowandisnotrespondingtolabormarkettighteninginthemannercentralJapan33bankmodelswouldpredict.WiththenotableexceptionoftheUK,G-4centralCanada37bankershaverecentlyloweredtheirinflationforecastsandareshowingconcernthatMexico39inflationwillnotreturntotargetanyt

6、imesoon.Indeed,theBoJpushedbackitstime-Brazil41linetoreachits2%inflationobjectivetoFY2019thisweek.EightofnineboardArgentina43Colombia45membersbelievethattheriskstothisinflationforecastareskewedtothedownside.UnitedKingdom47EmergingEurope49Notwithstandingtheambi

7、guityintheguidanceof“relativelysoon”and“au-SouthAfrica&SSA52tumn”respectivelyforFedandECBbalancesheetannouncements,itisclearEMEAEMfocus54thatinflationconcernsarenotderailingplanstoendtherapidexpansionofAustraliaandNewZealand55G-4centralbankbalancesheets,whichr

8、osenearly$4trillionover2016-17China,HongKong,andTaiwan57(Figure1).TheFedhassignaleditwillstartunwindingbeforeyear-endandKorea61ASEAN63thisweek’snoncommittalECBisstillontracktoendit