j.p.摩根-8月全球宏观数据解读-美国滞后于全球经济增长-jpmorgan-global data watch the us is not the life of the party

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1、Completed28Jul201708:10PMEDTDisseminated28Jul201708:14PMEDTEconomicResearchAugust1,2017Correctednote;originallypublished28Jul2017GlobalDataWatchLatestdatashowthatUSisnotanimportantdriverofglobalreflationContentsElectionnoiseaside,theUSDandEURhavebeenrelativelystableAtthecrossroadsa

2、ftergrowthandinflationsurprises14FedsignalsitwillannouncebalancesheetadjustmentinSeptemberQuantifyinghousingcorrectionriskinCanadaandtheUS19Nextweek:EuroareaGDP(3%);USjobs(200k);RBIeasing(25bp)Japan:Fiscaldragin2018followedbyresetofausterity21TheUSisnotthelifeofthepartyUK:Consumers

3、skatingonthiniceasincomegrowthrecovers23Alongsidethepastyear’spickupinglobalgrowth,keysectoraldivergenceshaveEMEAEMtourism:Croatiaisfullnarrowed.Aglobalmanufacturingsectorthatnearlystagnatedover2015-16re-oflife25boundedtoanestimated3.2%growthintheyearendinginJune,aligningwithKorea'sp

4、aradigmshifttosetoverallGDPgainsoverthisperiod(Figure1).Accompanyingthisrebound,cor-policiesforinclusivegrowth28porateprofitsandbusinesscapexbounced,recordingtheirstrongestgainsinoverthreeyearsduring1H17.ThisrebalancinghasreducedtailrisksandenhancedtheGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4res

5、iliencyoftheexpansion,thusopeningthedoorforarallyinglobalriskassets.GlobalCentralBankWatch6Nowcastofglobalgrowth7SelectedrecentresearchfromTheUnitedStates’relativeunderperformanceisanimportantpartoftheglob-8J.P.MorganEconomicsalrebalancingstory.Thisweek’s2QGDPreportconfirmedthatUSgro

6、wthTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9reboundedfromasoft1Q17.However,downwardrevisionstoeachofthepreviousthreequartersplacedUSGDPgainsat2.1%.overthepastyear(Fig-DataWatchesUnitedStates30ure2).WhiletheUShasfailedtogeneratematerialupwardmomentum,theEuroarea38EuroareaandEMeconomiesoutsideofChina

7、haveacceleratedsmartly,lift-Japan44ingnon-USglobalgrowthtoitsfastestpaceinfouryears.Canada48Mexico50Withthisrotationtakingplaceagainstthebackdropofabove-trendglobalBrazil52growth,wewouldviewitasaconstructivedevelopment(seetheresearchnoteArgentina54ColombiaandPeru56“Atthecrossroadsaft

8、ergrowthandi