8月全球宏观数据解读-美国滞后于全球经济增长

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1、Correctednote;originallypublished28Jul2017GlobalDataWatchLatestdatashowthatUSisnotanimportantdriverofglobalreflationContentsElectionnoiseaside,theUSDandEURhavebeenrelativelystableAtthecrossroadsaftergrowthandinflationsurprises14Fedsignalsitwillannoun

2、cebalancesheetadjustmentinSeptemberQuantifyinghousingcorrectionriskinCanadaandtheUS19Nextweek:EuroareaGDP(3%);USjobs(200k);RBIeasing(25bp)Japan:Fiscaldragin2018followedbyresetofausterity21TheUSisnotthelifeofthepartyUK:Consumersskatingonthiniceasincomeg

3、rowthrecovers23Alongsidethepastyear’spickupinglobalgrowth,keysectoraldivergenceshaveEMEAEMtourism:Croatiaisfullnarrowed.Aglobalmanufacturingsectorthatnearlystagnatedover2015-16re-oflife25boundedtoanestimated3.2%growthintheyearendinginJune,aligningwithKo

4、rea'sparadigmshifttosetoverallGDPgainsoverthisperiod(Figure1).Accompanyingthisrebound,cor-policiesforinclusivegrowth28porateprofitsandbusinesscapexbounced,recordingtheirstrongestgainsinoverthreeyearsduring1H17.Thisrebalancinghasreducedtailrisksandenhanc

5、edtheGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4resiliencyoftheexpansion,thusopeningthedoorforarallyinglobalriskassets.GlobalCentralBankWatch6Nowcastofglobalgrowth7SelectedrecentresearchfromTheUnitedStates’relativeunderperformanceisanimportantpartoftheglob-8J.P.Morga

6、nEconomicsalrebalancingstory.Thisweek’s2QGDPreportconfirmedthatUSgrowthTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9reboundedfromasoft1Q17.However,downwardrevisionstoeachofthepreviousthreequartersplacedUSGDPgainsat2.1%.overthepastyear(Fig-DataWatchesUnitedStates30ure2).Wh

7、iletheUShasfailedtogeneratematerialupwardmomentum,theEuroarea38EuroareaandEMeconomiesoutsideofChinahaveacceleratedsmartly,lift-Japan44ingnon-USglobalgrowthtoitsfastestpaceinfouryears.Canada48Mexico50Withthisrotationtakingplaceagainstthebackdropofabove-t

8、rendglobalBrazil52growth,wewouldviewitasaconstructivedevelopment(seetheresearchnoteArgentina54ColombiaandPeru56“Atthecrossroadsaftergrowthandinflationsurprises”inthisGDW).TheUnitedKingdom58post-financial-crisishealingofUSbalances