j.p.摩根-全球经济数据观察-艰难时刻，增长和通胀背道而驰-2017.8.11-88页-jpmorgan-global data watch breaking up is hard to do

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1、GlobalDataWatchDMcoreinflationcontinuestodownshift,ledbytheUSandJapanAsiaindustryrotation:ChinaandJapantoslowwhileotherspickupRussiaandTurkeyaregrowingmorerapidlythanexpectedNextweek:ChinaIPdips;JapanGDPpops;FedandECBminutesBreakingupishardtodoThelatestUSreleasesreinforcetheme

2、ssagethatgrowthandinflationaremovingindifferentdirections.Ontheheelsoflastweek’sstrongJulyem-ploymentreport,whichpushedtheunemploymentratetoa16-yearlow,thisweek’scoreCPIandPPIreadingswerelowerthanexpected.Alsothisweek,UShourlycompensationwasreviseddownwardforthepastyear,withunitla

3、borcostsdeclining0.2%oyain2Q17.ThedisappointmentoncoreinflationisnotablynotuniformacrosstheDM.Indeed,Euroareacoreinflationhassurprisedtotheupside.However,stubbornlylowcoreinflationandwagecostgrowthareacommonthemeacrossaDMregioncruisingatanabove-trendgrowthpaceandapproachingfullemp

4、loyment(Figure1).Thelatestnewsisparticularlysurprisingasdisinflationaryexternaldragslower-ingDMimportpriceshavefaded.WithimportpricesrisingandEMgrowthbackattrend,wehadanticipatedareboundinDMcoregoodspriceinflation.Instead,coregoodspriceshavefallenmorerapidlythisyear,ledbytheUS,whe

5、recoregoodsCPIinflationisthelowestsinceearly2004(Figure2).SincethelatestweakDMinflationreadingsarenotconnectedtothebusinesscycle,attentionisturningtootherpossibleexplanations.Thesharpnessoftherecentdroplendsitselftoexplanationstiedtocoreinflation’sinherentnoisi-ness.Thereisnoshort

6、ageofculpritsofpossibleone-offsintheUS,wherethismonth’srecordfallinthelodgingawayfromhomecategoryfollowedearliersharpdropsinairfaresandtelecommunicationprices.Ontheotherhand,thepersistenceoflowinflationlendsitselftostructuralexplanationsrelatedtoglobalization,internetcompetition,o

7、rtheexistenceofshadowslack.Wedonotdismisseitherofthesenarrativesbutfindthemhardtoapplytotherecentdownshiftincoreinflation.Someone-offfactorsareholdingbackcoreinflation,buttheslidehasbeentoobroad-basedtobeviewedthroughsuchanarrowlens.Atthesametime,themovehasbeensharp,short-lived,an

8、dpre-cededbyarunofstronger-than-e