j.p.摩根-全球宏观经济数据解读-2017.9.8-jpmorgan-global data watch so much depends on inflation

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1、Completed08Sep201708:06PMEDTDisseminated08Sep201708:16PMEDTEconomicResearchSeptember8,2017GlobalDataWatchFedandECBcautiousbutifourcallisrightandinflationrises,theyContentswillnormalizeandmarketswillneedtocorrectEM'semploymenttrendsdancingtoChinaimportsup,supportingrestof

2、regiondifferenttunes14AntipodeancentralbankstostayNAFTAtalksdeliverpositivetonebutfewdetailsstuckbelowneutral17NorthKorea:Thecontinuingstory21Upnext:UScoreCPI(0.16%),retailsales(0.2%);ChinaIP(0.7%)Hungary:TheNBH'smissionimpossible23SomuchdependsoninflationGlobalEconomicO

3、utlookSummary4Theglobaleconomyishumming,withgrowthsolidandthelatestdatasuggestingGlobalCentralBankWatch6continuedupsiderisktoourforecastfora3%annualizedGDPgainthisquarter.AsNowcastofglobalgrowth7reportedthisweek,inAugusttheglobalall-industryPMItickeduptoalevelcon-Selectedr

4、ecentresearchfrom8sistentwith3.2%globalGDPgrowth.Thisfollowsonlastweek’sfirmingintheJ.P.MorganEconomicsmanufacturingPMI,whichpointstoanevenmorerobust3.4%jumpinglobalfac-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets9toryoutput.And,ourglobalGDPnowcasteristrackingaquarterpercentagepointDataWatch

5、esstrongerthanourbottom-upoutlook.Anexpectedquick,albeittemporary,resolu-UnitedStates26Euroarea33tiontotheUSfiscalfundinganddebtceilingshowdownalsoisawelcomerelief.Japan37Canada41ThereboundinChina’simportsinAugustisalsoencouraging.AlthoughweMexico43forecastamoderationinChi

6、naGDPgrowththisquarter,itshouldbepositiveBrazil45forglobalactivity(andglobalcommodityprices),asthisslowingcomesArgentina47largelyfromanettradedrag.TheAugusttradereportisconsistentwiththisColombia,Peru,Chile49assessment,asimportsrose7.1%followinglastquarter’slargedecline.Un

7、itedKingdom51EmergingEurope53StrongerChinademandforforeigngoodslookstobesupportingthereboundSouthAfrica&SSA58underwayinAsianindustryandglobalmetalsprices(Figure1).WelookforMENA60nextweek’sChinaAugustactivitydatatoshowsolidmonthlygainsinIPEMEAEMfocus61(0.6%)andretailsales(0

8、.9%)aftertheJulydisappointment.AustraliaandNewZealand62China,HongKong,andTaiwan64Despitep