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1、FlashEconomicsWhathaschangedinwageformation?08December2017-1422NeitherwagesnorunitlabourcostsareacceleratingintheUnitedStatesinasituationwherefullemploymenthasalmostbeenreached,orintheeurozonewheretheunemploymentrateisnownotveryfarfromthestructuralunemploymentrate.Tounderstandthenatureofthi
2、schangeinwageformation,welookatwhichwageformationfactorshavechangedovertimeintheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone:isittheindexationofwagestoprices,theirreactiontoproductivitygainsortotheunemploymentrate,ortothelevelofcostcompetitiveness?Wesee:IntheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone,adeclineintheeffectofu
3、nemploymentandcostcompetitivenessonwages;Intheeurozone,inadditionadeclineintheindexationofwagestoprices.Thisseemstoshowthat:Inflationwillbeloweratfullemployment;Competitivenesslossesorgainsarenolongercorrected;Intheeurozone,inflationaryordisinflationaryshockshavenoeffectsonnominalwages.
4、PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsLackofaccelerat
5、ioninwagesatfullemployment(1)IntheUnitedStates,theunemploymentrateisverylow,anditdoesnotseemthattheparticipationratecanincreasefarmore(Charts1AandB).Yet,weseenosignsofaccelerationinnominalwagesorunitlabourcosts(Charts2AandB,Chart3).Chart1AChart1BUnitedStates:UnemploymentandparticipationUnit
6、edStates:Unemploymentandparticipationrates(as%)rates(as%)Unemploymentrate(LHS)763.31168Unemploymentrate(LHS)Participationrate(RHS)Participationrate(RHS)106763.19666862.976562.76645562.5634Sources:Datastream,BLS,NatixisSources:Datastream,BLS,Natixis362462.302030405060708091011121314151617181
7、415161718Chart2AChart2BUnitedStates:NominalpercapitawageUnitedStates:Wage(non-farmpayrolls,Y/Yas%)(excl.benefits,Y/Yas%)66Non-farmnominalpercapitawageWeeklyearnings6Non-financialnominalpercapitawage65Hourlyearnings544443322220011Sources:Datastream,BLS,Na
