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1、FlashEconomicsToolateforthe“greatrotation”?19January2018-84The“greatrotation”takesplacewheninvestorsswitchtheirportfoliosfrombondstoequities.Greatrotationsusuallyoccurinthemiddleofexpansionperiods,whenlong-terminterestratesstarttorise(expectedreturnsonb
2、ondsthenbecomelowornegative)andthegrowthoutlookremainsupbeat,whichjustifiesbuyingequitieseventhoughlong-terminterestratesarerising.ThereweregreatrotationsinthepastintheUnitedStatesin1998-99and2004-2007,andintheeurozonein1998-2000,2006-2007andinearly2008
3、.Butisitnowtoolatefortheretobeagreatrotation?Duetopersistentlyexpansionarymonetarypolicies,long-terminterestratesarerisingonlylateintheexpansionperiodatatimewhenthegrowthslowdownisimminent,soitisnottherighttimetobebuyingequities.Unlikewhatwasobservedint
4、hepast,investorsshouldprobablysteerclearofbuyingbothequitiesandbondsatpresentintheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportan
5、tdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsGreatrotationsinthepastintheUnitedStatesandtheeurozoneInthepast,investorsswitchedtheirportfoliosfrombondstoequitiesinthemiddleofanexpansionperiodbecause:-Monetarypolicywasstartingtobecomerestrictive,andthe
6、yfacedtheprospectofariseinlong-terminterestratesandthereforenegativebondreturns;-Inthemiddleofanexpansionperiod,theoutlookforgrowthandcorporateearningsisstillpositive,soinvestorsarejustifiedinbuyingequitieseventhoughlong-terminterestratesarerising.Inthe
7、UnitedStates(Charts1A,B,CandD),thereweresignsofagreatrotation(parallelincreaseinlong-terminterestratesandshareprices,continuedgrowthinGDPandprofits)in1998-1999and2004-2007.Chart1AChart1BUnitedStates:Interestrateon10-yearTreasuriesUnitedStates:S&Pstockma
8、rketindex(Y/Yas%)andstockmarketindex8080980010-yearTreasuryinterestrate(as%,LHS)60608S&P(1994:1=100,RHS)70076004040650020205400004300-20-203200-40-402100Sources:Datastream,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis10-60-609496980002040608
