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1、FlashEconomicsHowaregovernmentsmanagingtofinancethemselves?07February2018-128InOECDcountries,governmentbondyieldsarecurrentlyconsiderablylowerthanthereturnonphysicalcapital,thereturnonequityorthereturnonequities.Itoughttobemuchmoreattractivetoinvestincorporatecapita
2、lthantofinancegovernments.Sohowaregovernmentsmanagingtofinancethemselves?Thankstolocalcentralbanks;butthisisnolongerthecaseintheUnitedStates;Thankstotherenewedaccumulationofforeign-exchangereserves,whicharelargelyinvestedingovernmentbonds;Becauseinvestorsarehighl
3、yaversetotheriskofholdingequities,especiallyaftertheequitymarketcrises,andgovernmentbondsarestillperceivedtobelow-risk;Becauseregulationsforfinancialintermediariesforcethemtoholdgovernmentbonds.Isthissituationwheregovernmentsareabletofinancethemselveseasilydespitet
4、helowlevelofgovernmentbondyieldsrelativetoreturnsoncapitalsustainable?Probably,aslongasinvestorsthinkthatdefaultbyamajorcountryisimpossible.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnited
5、States.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsItoughttobemuchmoreattractivetoinvestincorporatecapitalthaningovernmentbondsWewilllookattheOECDasawhole(which,tosimplify,wedefineasUnitedStates+UnitedKingdom+eurozone+Japan).Inthesecountries,governmen
6、tbondyieldsaremuchlowerthanthereturnonphysicalcapital(theROACE,Chart1),thereturnonequity(theRoE,Chart1B)andthereturnonequities(Chart1C).Chart1AChart1BOECD*:Returnonproductivecapital**andinterestOECD*:RoEandinterestrateon10-yearrateon10-yeargovernmentbonds(as%)govern
7、mentbonds(as%)Returnonproductivecapital**(ROACE)181877ROE10-yeargovt.interestrate161610-yeargovt.interestrate661414(*)UnitedStates,United5Kingdom,eurozone,Japan512124410108833(*)UnitedStates+United6Kingdom+eurozone+Japan62(**)Profitsaftertax,interestanddividends2as%
8、ofnetnominalnon-constructioncapital441122Sources:Datastream,nationalsources,OECD,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis000002030405060708091011
