那提西银行-全球-经济理论-什 么因素会导致投机泡沫？

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1、FlashEconomicsWhatfactorstendtocausespeculativebubbles?30January2018-111Intherecentperiodwehaveseenaresurgenceofspeculativebubbles(equities,new-technologyshares,realestate,cryptocurrencies,etc.).Whatarethefactorsgivingrisetobubbles?Lowreturnsonrisk-freeassets;Theeaseofusingleverage;Optimism

2、regardingtheeconomicoutlook;Uncertaintyconcerningthefundamentalvalueoftheassetsinquestion(oreventheabsenceoffundamentalvalue,asinthecaseofcryptocurrenciesandgold);Herdbehaviourofinvestors-savers.Wenotethatallthesefactorsconducivetotheoccurrenceofspeculativebubblesarenowpresent.PatrickArtusTe

3、l.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsSpeculativebubbleshavereappearedIntherecentperiodspeculativebubbleshavereappearedin:-Equities(Charts1AandB;2AandB),p

4、robablyintheUnitedStatesandJapan;Chart1AChart1BStockmarketindices:S&PandEuroStoxxStockmarketindices:FTSEandNikkei(2002:1=100)(2002:1=100)250250250250S&PFTSE225225EuroStoxxNikkei2002002002001751751501501501501251251001001001007575Sources:Datastream,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis5050505002030

5、405060708091011121314151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Chart2AChart2BForwardPERForwardPER22225050S&PFTSE20EuroStoxx2045Nikkei4540401818353516163030141425251212202010101515881010Sources:Datastream,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis665502030405060708091011121314151617180203040506070809101

6、112131415161718-New-technologyshares(Charts3A,BandC);-Realestate(Charts4AandB)intheUnitedKingdom,theUnitedStatesandJapan;-Cryptocurrencies(Chart5).Chart3AChart3BStockmarketindicesintechnology(2002:1=100)PER8080400400NasdaqNasdaq350S&PIT350S&P-ITEuroStoxxIT60EuroStoxx-IT603003002502504040200200

7、15015010010020205050Sources:Datastream,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis0000020304050607080910111213141516171802030405060708091011121314151617182FlashEconomicsChart3CChart4AGAFAM*:PER**Residentialrealestateprices(2002:1=100)4545UnitedSt