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1、FlashEconomicsIstherea“high-end”wayoutofdeindustrialisation?26January2018-87Intheeurozone,France,Spain,ItalyandPortugalhavebeendeindustrialisingfor20years.Therearetwowaysforcountriestoovercomedeindustrialisation:Bypursuinga“low-end”strategy:loweringwagesa
2、ndlabourcosts,aggressivelyreducingthetaxburden.ThisstrategyhasbeenpursuedbySpainandPortugal;Bypursuinga“high-end”strategy:raisingproductsophisticationandquality,modernisingcapital,increasinglabourforceskills.CouldFranceandItalysuccessfullypursuethishigh-e
3、ndstrategy?ThereisnosignasyetthatFranceorItalyispursuingahigh-endstrategy.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..Fl
4、ashEconomicsDeindustrialisationintheeurozoneinFrance,Spain,ItalyandPortugalWhenweexamine,sincethecreationoftheeuro,theevolutionof:-Industrialproductioncapacity(Chart1);-Employmentinmanufacturingindustry(Chart2),weseethatFrance,Spain,ItalyandPortugalhavebee
5、ndeindustrialising.Chart2Chart1EmploymentinthemanufacturingsectorManufacturingproductioncapacity*(1999:1=100)(1999:1=100)GermanyFranceGermanyFranceSpain140SpainItaly140ItalyPortugalPortugal110110130130100100120120(*)Manufacturingproduction/capacityutilisat
6、ionrateinthemanufacturingsector9090110110808010010090907070Sources:Datastream,EC,NatixisSources:Datastream,Eurostat,Natixis808060609901030507091113151799010305070911131517Wewilllookathowcountriescanovercomedeindustrialisation:-Bypursuinga“low-end”strategy?
7、Thiswouldinvolveloweringlabourcostsandreducingthetaxburdentoattractinvestment;-Bypursuinga“high-end”strategy?Thiswouldinvolveclimbingupthevaluechain,modernisingcapitalandincreasinglabourforceskillsinparallel.Twoexamplesofalow-endstrategytoovercomedeindustr
8、ialisation:SpainandPortugalSpainandPortugalaretwoclearexamplesofcountriesthathaveovercomedeindustrialisationbypursuingalow-endstrategy:-WagesandunitlabourcostshavebeencurbedinSpainandPortugal(Charts3AandB);-T
