那提西银行-全球-经济理论-“长远来看，我们皆已死亡”

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1、FlashEconomics“Inthelongrunwearealldead”23January2018-92Overthepast10years,governmentsandcentralbanksinOECDcountriesappeartohavebeenguidedbythisfamousquotefromJohnMaynardKeynes:TheconsiderableincreaseinpublicdebtratioswillforceOECDcountriestocontinuouslyconductrestri

2、ctivefiscalpoliciesinthefutureorwillforcecentralbankstocontinuouslyensurefiscalsolvency(toyieldtofiscaldominance).Governmentsseemtobeoblivioustotheselong-termcosts;Theconsiderableexpansioninthequantityofmoneyimplementedbycentralbanks,giventhatitisunlikelytobesignific

3、antlycorrected,leadstoapermanentriskoffinancialinstability:asset-pricebubbles,highvariabilityinassetpricesandexchangerates,abnormalsqueezingofriskpremia.Theriskoffinancialinstabilityinthelongtermdoesnotseemtohavebeentakenintoconsiderationbycentralbanks;Thefactthatcen

4、tralbankshavekeptinterestratesabnormallylowforalongperiodoftimereducesyieldsonsavingsandtheincomefromfinancialassetsaccumulatedbyhouseholds,whichwillreducetheincomesoffuturepensionersforalongtime.Thiscostoflow-interest-ratepoliciesisseldomdiscussed.Thelong-termconsequ

5、encesoftheunconventionalfiscalandmonetarypoliciesconductedoverthepast10yearsdonotseemtobeseriouslytakenintoconsideration.Itisasifthelongrundidnotexist.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportin

6、theUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsHasthelongrunbeenforgotten?AccordingtoKeynes’famousquote(“Inthelongrunwearealldead”),policymakersshouldnotrefrainfromstabilisingtheeconomyintheshorttermbecauseofthelong-termeffectsofthepolicies

7、employedtothisend.Butshouldthelong-termconsequencesofcountercyclicaleconomicpoliciesbecompletelyignored?Wethinkthatgovernmentsandcentralbanksoverthepast10yearsseemtohaveadheredexcessivelytoKeynes’viewandhaveturnedablindeyetothelongrun.Thelong-termeffectsofveryhighpubl

8、icdebtratiosOverthepast10years,governmentsinOECDcountries(tosimplify,wedefinetheOECDasUnitedStates+UnitedKingdom+eurozone+Ja