那提西银行-全球-经济理论-什么决定了长期通胀？

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1、FlashEconomicsWhatdeterminesinflationinthelongterm?11December2017-1420WelookattheexamplesoftheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone:Traditionally,ithasbeenassumedthatinflationisdeterminedinthelongtermbygrowthinthemoneysupply:thistheory(compatiblewithastablerelationshipbetween

2、demandformoneyandnominalincome)hasnowbeencompletelyrefutedbythefacts;Iflong-terminflationisnotdeterminedbythemoneysupply,itmaybedeterminedbyothercontrolled,exogenousnominalvariables:Nominalwages,intheeventanominalwagenormisintroducedtothelabourmarket;Thenominalex

3、changerate,ifitiscontrolledbymonetarypolicy.AninterestingrecenttheoryisthatofNeo-Fisherism:inthelongterm,becausetherealinterestratestemsfromstructuralfeaturesoftherealeconomy,inflationisdeterminedbythenominalinterestrate,whichissetbythecentralbank.Inanyevent,itisvi

4、taltodiscussthedeterminantsoflong-terminflationandtofindatheorytoreplacethemonetarytheoryoflong-terminflation.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZ

5、EDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThemonetarytheoryoflong-terminflationisobsoleteThemonetarytheoryoflong-terminflationstemsfromtheassumptionofastablelong-termrelationshipbetweenthe

6、moneysupplyandnominalincome:moneysupply=?×pricelevel×levelofrealGDPwhere?isaconstantInthelongterm,realGDPisequaltopotentialGDP,soinflationvarieswithgrowthinthemoneysupply.1moneysupplyWehave:pricelevel=?levelofGDPWewilllookatthesituationsoftheUnitedStatesandtheeurozo

7、ne,usingeitherthemonetarybase(centralbankmoney)orM2(banknotesanddeposits)torepresentthemoneysupply.Charts1AandBshowthatrelativetorealGDPoverthepast20years,themoneysupply(regardlessofitsdefinition)hasincreasedmuchmorethanprices.Themonetarytheoryoflong-terminflationca

8、nthereforecertainlynolongerbeused.Chart1AChart1BUnitedStates:Ratioofmoneysupply-to-realGDPEurozone:Ratioofmoneysupply-to-realGDPandandinfl