那提西银行-全球-经济理论-“经济民族主义”又回来了：以什么形式？为什么？

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1、FlashEconomics“Economicnationalism”isback:Inwhatforms?Why?11December2017-1439Thereturnof“economicnationalism”istakingonmanyforms:Protectionismandnationalpreference;Protectionagainstforeigninvestment;Rejectionoffederalism;Capitalcontrols;Useofthee

2、xchangerate;Absenceofinternationaleconomicpolicycoordination.Whyiseconomicnationalismmakingacomeback?Becausegrowthhasslowed(the“globalpie”issmaller,especiallyinindustry);Becausecountrieshaveunderstoodtheneedtopreserveindustry(skilledjobs,balancedfo

3、reigntrade);Becausecountrieshaveunderstoodthatcorporateownershipisimportant;Becauselargeeconomicblocs(countries,currencyareas,etc.)havegivenrisetoincomeinequalitybetweenregions.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.r

4、esearch.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThesixformsofthereturnofeconomicnationalismItha

5、sbeenstrikingintherecentperiodtoseethereturnofdifferentformsofeconomicnationalism.Previously,theprinciplesofthe“WashingtonConsensus”-freemovementofgoods,servicesandcapital-governedhowthingsweredone,largeeconomicblocswerebeingformed(theEuropeanUnion,th

6、eeurozone,theNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement-NAFTA),anditwasthoughtthat“Anglo-Saxonfinancialcapitalism”wouldbecomethedominantformofcorporategovernance.Buteconomicnationalismhasariseninvariousforms:1-ProtectionismWearenowseeingdemandsforlocalproduction

7、,closetoconsumers,andlocalcontent;thereturnofnationalpreference(thereistalkofaBuyEuropeanActmodelledontheBuyAmericanAct);theintroductionofcustomsduties(theTrumpadministration’sproposaltotaxtheimportsofcompaniesoperatingintheUnitedStatesat20%).Thesedif

8、ferentformsofprotectionismarecontributingtotheslowdowninglobaltrade(Chart1A)andintheglobalisationoftrade(Chart1B).Chart1BChart1BOECD*:Exports+importsOECD*:Exports+imports(involumeterms,as%ofrealGDP)(involumeterms,as%ofrealGDP)42.5(*)UnitedStat