那提西-全球-经济理论-胜者通吃

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1、FlashEconomicsThewinnertakesall26January2018-85Inasituationwherethereareincreasingeconomiesofscaleorhighfixedcosts,thebiggestcompanieshavelowerpricesthantheothersandultimatelywinthewholemarket("thewinnertakesall").Companieswhichstartfromalargedomesticmarketaretherefor

2、emoreefficientinsubsequentlywinningglobalmarkets.ThetragedyoftheEuropeanUnionisitsinabilitytouseitsinternalmarkettoproducedominantcompaniesinthedigitalindustryandequipmentforrenewableenergies.TheexceptionsarethoseEuropeancompanieswhichbecameglobalisedataveryearlystage

3、toprofitdirectlyfromtheglobalmarket:intheaerospace,automotive,energy,chemicalandconstructionindustriesamongothers,butnotinnewtechnologies.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStat

4、es.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsDecreasingmarginalcostsIfthereareincreasingeconomiesofscaleorhighfixedcostsinanindustry,themarginalcostisdecreasing:thebiggestcompanieshavelowerpricesthantheothersandultimatelywinthewholemarket("thewinnerta

5、kesall").Companieswhichstartfromalargedomesticmarketthereforehaveanadvantagecomparedwiththosewhichstartfromasmallerdomesticmarkettowinglobalmarkets.TheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionandChinaarethethreelargestdomesticmarkets(Table1).Table1Year2017Populationinmillionsofpe

6、opleGDPinPPPUSDbnUnitedStates32718,625EU-2744317,519China137221,480Sources:IMF,NatixiscalculationInseveralstrategicindustries,theEuropeanUnionhasbeenunabletouseitsinternalmarket1-Inthedigitalindustry,thebiggestcompaniesareUSorChinese(Table2),notEuropean.2-Table2:Bigin

7、ternetcompanies-Revenue,marketcapitalisationandprofits(inUSDbn)20022005200720082009201020132014201520162017Revenue0.46.116.621.823.729.355.566.075.090.3-GoogleProfits0.11.54.24.26.58.413.413.616.119.7-Marketcapitalisation-121.6216.496.9197.0190.8376.4359.4527.7540.271

8、5.8Revenue3.98.514.819.224.534.274.589.0107.0136.0-AmazonProfits-0.10.40.50.60.91.20.3-0.10.62.4-Marketcapitalisation7.319.6