那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-再通胀？

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1、FlashEconomicsReflation?09February2018-159Financialmarketsarestartingtosubscribetoareflationscenario:Areturnofinflation,causedbythereturntofullemployment;Andthereforerisinglong-terminterestrates;Andthereforethreatstoequitymarkets.Thisisdrivinginve

2、storstohedgeagainst:Inflation(hencetheriseininflationswaps);Aslumpinshareprices(hencetheriseintheVIX).Butistherereallyreflation?Unitlabourcostsandtheoutlookfortheoilpricedonotsuggestthisisthecase.The"reflationtrade"shouldberejected.PatrickArtusTel.

3、(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThe"reflation"scenarioFinancialmarkets(welookatthesituationsoftheUnitedSta

4、tesandtheeurozone)increasinglybelievethat:-Asaresultofthereturntofullemployment(Chart1)inflationwillreturnbecauseoffasterwageincreases;-Thereturnofinflationwilldriveuplong-terminterestrates(Chart2);-Theriseinlong-terminterestratesmayresultinanequitym

5、arketcorrection(Chart3).Chart1Chart2Unemploymentrate(as%)Interestrateon10-yeargovernmentbonds(as%)UnitedStates661414UnitedStatesEurozone5Germany5121244101033882266114400Sources:Datastream,BLS,Eurostat,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis22-1-10203040506

6、0708091011121314151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Chart3Stockmarketindices(2002:1=100)275EuroStoxx275250S&P2502252252002001751751501501251251001007575Sources:Datastream,Natixis50500203040506070809101112131415161718Thereflationscenarioistheref

7、oreascenariowhereeconomiesreturntonormal:finally,attheendofanexpansionperiod(Charts1and4),fullemploymentbringsbackinflationandhigherinterestrates.2FlashEconomicsChart4RealGDPgrowth(Y/Yas%)6UnitedStates6Eurozone442200-2-2-4-4Sources:Datastream,BEA,ECB

8、,Natixis-6-60203040506070809101112131415161718NormalinvestorreactiontothereflationscenarioIfthereisreflation,investorsshould:-Hedgeagainstthereturnofinflation,whichexplainstheriseininflationswaps(Charts5AandB);Chart5AChart5BUnitedStates:Inflationswap