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ID:8231041
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页数:6页
时间:2018-03-11
《那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-遗憾的是,“顺风”时代已经结束了》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、FlashEconomicsRegrettably,“leaningagainstthewind”isover05December2017-1445Manyeconomistshavesuggestedthatcentralbanksshould“leanagainstthewind”:thattheirmonetarypoliciesgraduallybecomemorerestrictiveduringexpansionperiodstopreventfinancialimbalances-overborrowing,excessiveriseinassetpricesa
2、ndsqueezingofriskpremia-andtherebyreducetheriskofafinancialcrisislateintheexpansionperiod.Itisnowcleartoseethatthecentralbankshaverejectedleaningagainstthewindandfinancialimbalancesaremounting(welookattheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone).Itiswellknownthatcentralbankspreferthestrategyofnotleaninga
3、gainstthewind(ofkeepingmonetarypolicyhighlyexpansionaryduringexpansions)and,ifacrisisissetinmotion,ofusingahighlyexpansionarymonetarypolicytocombat(“cleanup”)thecrisis.Butthereisnowaseriousproblemwiththisstrategyemployedbycentralbanks:sincetheyhavekepttheirmonetarypolicieshighlyexpansionary
4、duringtheexpansion,theyhavenoroomtomoveifacrisisdidarise.Sincethecentralbankshavenot“leaned”,theywillnotbeableto“clean”either.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCI
5、ALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsCentralbankshavechosentonotleanagainstthewindWewillillustrateourremarkswiththesituationsoftheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone.Leaningagainstthewindisamonetarypolicystrategythatconsistsin
6、conductingagraduallymorerestrictivemonetarypolicyinexpansionperiodsinordertopreventfinancialimbalancesandthereforereducetheriskofafinancialcrisisattheendoftheexpansionperiod.Manyeconomiststhinkthatleaningagainstthewindisagoodstrategytoreducethelikelihoodofafinancialcrisis.Butitisclearthatce
7、ntralbankshavechosentonotleanagainstthewind.Monetarypolicycurrentlyremainshighlyexpansionary,asshownbythelevelofinterestrates(Charts1AandB).Chart1AChart1BUnitedStates:NominalGDP,interestrateon10-Eurozone:NominalGDP,interestrateon10-yearyearTreasuriesandF
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