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1、FlashEconomicsRegrettably,“leaningagainstthewind”isover05December2017-1445Manyeconomistshavesuggestedthatcentralbanksshould“leanagainstthewind”:thattheirmonetarypoliciesgraduallybecomemorerestrictiveduringexpansionperiodstopreventfinancialimbalances-overborrowing,excessiveriseinassetpricesa

2、ndsqueezingofriskpremia-andtherebyreducetheriskofafinancialcrisislateintheexpansionperiod.Itisnowcleartoseethatthecentralbankshaverejectedleaningagainstthewindandfinancialimbalancesaremounting(welookattheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone).Itiswellknownthatcentralbankspreferthestrategyofnotleaninga

3、gainstthewind(ofkeepingmonetarypolicyhighlyexpansionaryduringexpansions)and,ifacrisisissetinmotion,ofusingahighlyexpansionarymonetarypolicytocombat(“cleanup”)thecrisis.Butthereisnowaseriousproblemwiththisstrategyemployedbycentralbanks:sincetheyhavekepttheirmonetarypolicieshighlyexpansionary

4、duringtheexpansion,theyhavenoroomtomoveifacrisisdidarise.Sincethecentralbankshavenot“leaned”,theywillnotbeableto“clean”either.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCI

5、ALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsCentralbankshavechosentonotleanagainstthewindWewillillustrateourremarkswiththesituationsoftheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone.Leaningagainstthewindisamonetarypolicystrategythatconsistsin

6、conductingagraduallymorerestrictivemonetarypolicyinexpansionperiodsinordertopreventfinancialimbalancesandthereforereducetheriskofafinancialcrisisattheendoftheexpansionperiod.Manyeconomiststhinkthatleaningagainstthewindisagoodstrategytoreducethelikelihoodofafinancialcrisis.Butitisclearthatce

7、ntralbankshavechosentonotleanagainstthewind.Monetarypolicycurrentlyremainshighlyexpansionary,asshownbythelevelofinterestrates(Charts1AandB).Chart1AChart1BUnitedStates:NominalGDP,interestrateon10-Eurozone:NominalGDP,interestrateon10-yearyearTreasuriesandF