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1、FlashEconomicsInflationistherealrisk09January2018-10UndertherosyscenarioformonetarypoliciesintheOECD,centralbanksverygraduallywithdrawthesurplusliquidityover10-20years.Suchaveryslowmonetarypolicynormalisation,shoulditbeabletotakeplace,wouldavertcrisesrelatedtoanoverlyrapidnormalisation.10to20yea
2、rsof“economiccalm”wouldbeneededforthisveryslowmonetarypolicynormalisationtobeabletotakeplace:Ifarecessionarose,itwouldnotbesevere:liquidityremainsabundantandcanbeincreasedagain;Butifinflationreturned,centralbankswouldhavetonormalisetheirmonetarypoliciesabruptly,andthenormalisationofinterestrat
3、esandriskpremiawouldleadtoacrisis.Sotherealdangerisinflationinterruptingtheeconomiccalmneededtograduallywithdrawtheexcessliquidityoveraverylongperiodoftime.Whatcouldgiverisetoinflation?Notlabourmarkets,givenhowtheyarefunctioningatpresent;Changesofgovernment,leadingtoverydifferentwagepolicies(s
4、uchasasharpincreaseintheminimumwage);Asharpincreaseinoilprices.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsTherosyscenarioformonetarypoliciesinOECD
5、countries:AveryslownormalisationMonetarypoliciesinOECDcountriesarecurrentlyhighlyexpansionary:verylowshort-terminterestrates(Chart1A),veryabundantliquidity(Chart1B).Chart1AChart1BOECD**:Centralbanks'keyinterestrate(as%)OECD*:Monetarybase14,000InUSDbn(LHS)353.5(*)UnitedStates+UnitedKingdom3.5As%o
6、fnominalGDP(RHS)+eurozone+Japan12,000303.03.010,000252.52.5(*)UnitedStates+UnitedKingdom+eurozone+Japan2.02.08,000201.51.56,000151.01.04,000100.50.5Sources:Datastream,centralbanks,NatixisSources:Datastream,Fed,BoE,ECB,BoJ,Natixis0.00.02,00050203040506070809101112131415161718020304050607080910111
7、2131415161718AnabruptmonetarypolicynormalisationinOECDcountrieswouldbedangerous:itwouldtriggeranincreaseininterestratesandinriskpremia,atatimewhendebtratiosareveryhigh(Chart2).Chart2OECD*:Public,private-sectorandtotaldebt(as
