那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-金融宏观经济学的新模式

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1、FlashEconomicsTowardsanewmodeloffinancialmacroeconomics12January2018-23Thetraditionalmodeloffinancialmacroeconomicsiswellknown:Householdshavealendingcapacity;companiesandthegovernmenthaveaborrowingrequirement;Householdsavingsmustthereforebechannelled,viafina

2、ncialmarketsandbanks,intofinancingthegovernment(viathegovernmentbondmarket)andcompanies,eitherinadisintermediated(viaequityandbondmarkets)orintermediatedmanner(viabankcredit);Thisraisesthequestionastowhetherthegovernmentcrowdsoutcompaniesiffiscaldeficitsarela

3、rge,andofthechoicebetweenintermediatedanddisintermediatedcorporatefinance;Monetarypolicyaffectstheeconomymainlybymodifyingthecostofcorporatefinance.ButthistraditionalmodelisnolongersuitedtocontemporaryanalysisofOECDcountries.Inthesecountries,incomedistributio

4、nhasbeenskewedheavilyinfavourofcompanies,whichself-financetheirinvestment.Theonlyeconomicagentwithaborrowingrequirementisthereforethegovernment,andtheonlyroleoffinanceistochannelhouseholdsavingsintofinancingfiscaldeficits.Thisraisesverydifferentquestions:What

5、istheroleofequityandcorporatebondmarketsifcompaniesnolongerusethemtoraisefinance?Whatusearebanksiftheyonlyhavetotransformhouseholddepositsintogovernmentbondpurchases?Ismonetarypolicyineffectiveifcompaniesfullyself-financetheirinvestments?PatrickArtusTel.(33

6、1)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThetraditionalmodeloffinancialmacroeconomicsWewillassessthesituationoftheOECDasawhole(w

7、hich,tosimplify,wedefineasUnitedStates+UnitedKingdom+eurozone+Japan)sincethestartofthe1990s.Thetraditionalmodeloffinancialmacroeconomicscorrespondstothesituationinthesecountriesinthe1990sandearly2000s:-Companiesandthegovernmenthaveaborrowingrequirement(fiscald

8、eficitsandcorporateself-financingratebelow100%,whichshowsthatexternalfinancingisneededtofinanceinvestments,Charts1AandB);Chart1AChart1BOECD*:Fiscaldeficit(as%ofnominalGDP)OECD*:Sel