那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-财政主导

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1、FlashEconomicsFiscaldominance17November2017-1332Fiscaldominanceisasituationinwhichmonetarypolicyisforcedtoensurefiscalsolvency,whenthelatterisnotensuredbyanadjustmentoffiscalpolicy.Monetarypolicyistherefore"dominated"bytheneedtoensurefiscalsolvency.Weexaminethesituationsofthe

2、UnitedStates,theeurozoneandJapan:canweseethereasituationoffiscaldominancewheretherewouldbealossoffiscalsolvencyunlessanabnormallyexpansionarymonetarypolicywasmaintained?ThereisclearlyfiscaldominanceinJapan,andthesituationisnotfarfromthisintheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone.Itisnot

3、possibletothinkabouttheoutlookformonetarypolicywithouttakingintoaccountthisconstraintwhichisduetothefiscalsituationandthehighlevelofpublicdebtratios.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMEN

4、TSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsDefinitionoffiscaldominanceFiscaldominanceisasituationwhereacountry'smonetarypolicycannolongerpursueitsnormalobjectives.Itbecom

5、estiedbytheneedtomaintainfiscalsolvency,whichisnotachievedbyasufficientadjustmentoffiscalpolicy.Intheconventionaleconomicliterature,fiscaldominancetakestheformofthemonetisationofpublicdebtbythecentralbank;butitcanalsotaketheformofinterestrateskeptabnormallylowtomakeitpossible

6、toensurefiscalsolvency.SoletusexaminewhetherthereisfiscaldominanceatpresentintheUnitedStates,theeurozoneorJapan.IstherefiscaldominanceintheUnitedStates,theeurozoneorJapan?Weshallfocusontheinterestrateskeptabnormallylowbythecentralbank.Ifinterestratesweretoreturntoa"normal"lev

7、el,wouldtherebealossoffiscalsolvency?1–UnitedStatesInthepast,thelong-terminterestrateintheUnitedStateswasinthevicinityofnominalgrowth(Chart1C).Ifthelong-terminterestrateintheUnitedStatesweretonowreturnto4%,theinterestpaidonthepublicdebtwouldeventuallyriseto4.3%ofGDP(Chart1B).

8、Thiswouldmeanthatfiscalsolvency(Chart1A)wouldbejustensured.Chart1ACh