欢迎来到天天文库
浏览记录
ID:8228463
大小:567.87 KB
页数:6页
时间:2018-03-11
《那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-财政主导》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、FlashEconomicsFiscaldominance17November2017-1332Fiscaldominanceisasituationinwhichmonetarypolicyisforcedtoensurefiscalsolvency,whenthelatterisnotensuredbyanadjustmentoffiscalpolicy.Monetarypolicyistherefore"dominated"bytheneedtoensurefiscalsolvency.Weexaminethesituationsofthe
2、UnitedStates,theeurozoneandJapan:canweseethereasituationoffiscaldominancewheretherewouldbealossoffiscalsolvencyunlessanabnormallyexpansionarymonetarypolicywasmaintained?ThereisclearlyfiscaldominanceinJapan,andthesituationisnotfarfromthisintheUnitedStatesandtheeurozone.Itisnot
3、possibletothinkabouttheoutlookformonetarypolicywithouttakingintoaccountthisconstraintwhichisduetothefiscalsituationandthehighlevelofpublicdebtratios.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMEN
4、TSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsDefinitionoffiscaldominanceFiscaldominanceisasituationwhereacountry'smonetarypolicycannolongerpursueitsnormalobjectives.Itbecom
5、estiedbytheneedtomaintainfiscalsolvency,whichisnotachievedbyasufficientadjustmentoffiscalpolicy.Intheconventionaleconomicliterature,fiscaldominancetakestheformofthemonetisationofpublicdebtbythecentralbank;butitcanalsotaketheformofinterestrateskeptabnormallylowtomakeitpossible
6、toensurefiscalsolvency.SoletusexaminewhetherthereisfiscaldominanceatpresentintheUnitedStates,theeurozoneorJapan.IstherefiscaldominanceintheUnitedStates,theeurozoneorJapan?Weshallfocusontheinterestrateskeptabnormallylowbythecentralbank.Ifinterestratesweretoreturntoa"normal"lev
7、el,wouldtherebealossoffiscalsolvency?1–UnitedStatesInthepast,thelong-terminterestrateintheUnitedStateswasinthevicinityofnominalgrowth(Chart1C).Ifthelong-terminterestrateintheUnitedStatesweretonowreturnto4%,theinterestpaidonthepublicdebtwouldeventuallyriseto4.3%ofGDP(Chart1B).
8、Thiswouldmeanthatfiscalsolvency(Chart1A)wouldbejustensured.Chart1ACh
此文档下载收益归作者所有