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1、FlashEconomicsProductivitygainsandthe“patiencetheory”06December2017-1401Manyeconomistsandhistoriansbelieveinthe“patiencetheory”:itwilltakesometimebeforetheeffectsofnewtechnologiesandthedigitaleconomyarefelt,aswasthecasewithinnovationsinthepast.Aslongascorporat
2、estructureshavenotadjustedtotheneedsofnewtechnologies,itisnormaltoseethatnewtechnologieshavenotbroughtaboutanupturninproductivitygains.Itisveryimportanttoknowwhetherthis“patiencetheory”isrightornot:Ifitisright,thenproductivitygainswillincreaseinthefutureandpo
3、tentialgrowthwillbehigher,meaningthat:Currentlong-terminterestratesaretoolow,astheydonotreflectthishigherpotentialgrowthinthefuture;Thehighcurrentequityvaluationisjustifiedbythisfutureincreaseingrowth;Ifitiswrong,thenproductivitygainsandpotentialgrowthwillr
4、emainlowand:Itisnormalthatlong-terminterestratesarelow;Equityvaluationistoohighandwillcorrectdownwards.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALI
5、ZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThe“patiencetheory”WewilllookattheOECDasawhole,which,tosimplify,wedefineasUnitedStates+eurozone+UnitedKingdom+Japan.Despitethedevelopmentof
6、newtechnologiesandthedigitaleconomy(Chart1,Table1)anddespiteautomation(Table2),labourproductivitygainscontinuetodecline(Chart2)andgrowthintotalfactorproductivityhasslowed(Chart3).Chart1Chart2OECD*:NTIC**investmentOECD*:Percapitaproductivity(involumeterms,as%of
7、realGDP)6Y/Yas%6Y/Yas%smoothedoverthepast5years3.5Excl.softwareanddatabases3.5Incl.softwareanddatabases443.03.02.52.5222.02.0(*)UnitedStates+eurozone+UnitedKingdom+Japan00(**)Newinformationandcommunicationtechnologies1.51.5(*)UnitedStates+eurozone+UnitedKingdo
8、m+Japan-2-21.01.0Sources:Datastream,OECD,Eurostat,NatixisSources:Datastream,BLS,ONS,Eurostat,CAO,Natixis0.50.5-4-49899000102030405060708091011121314159800020406081012141618Chart3OE
