那提西银行-全球-金融理论-“储备货币诅咒”与欧元

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1、FlashEconomicsThe“reservecurrencycurse”andtheeuro07February2018-151Webeginwiththe“Triffinparadox”describedbyRobertTriffinin1960:theUnitedStatesissuesareservecurrency,whichforcesittohaveanexternaldeficitandexternaldebt,sinceitmustbeabletosupplyassetsindollarsforinvestorsintherestof

2、theworld.TheresultingincreaseintheUSexternaldebtthenerodesthequalityofthedollarandleadstofinancialvulnerability,hencethe“reservecurrencycurse”.Theeuroisalsoareservecurrency,buttheeurozonehasneitheranexternaldeficitnorexternaldebt.Thismeansthatfinancialassetsineurosarenotavailablet

3、obeboughtbynon-residents,whereastheyoughttobe,giventheeuro’sreserve-currencystatus.Asaresult:Assoonastheworldaccumulatesforeign-exchangereservesandtheeconomicandpoliticalsituationintheeurozoneisnolongeraconcern,theeuroappreciatessharply;Thereisapositivecorrelationbetweenoilprice

4、sandtheeuro’sexchangerate,asariseinoilpricesleadstoanincreaseindemandforeurosinoil-exportingcountries.Itisthereforeimportantthattheeurozone’spoliticalandeconomicauthoritiesunderstandthattheeuro’sreserve-currencystatusisincompatiblewiththeeurozonenothavingexternaldebt,andthatthissi

5、tuationgeneratesastructuralovervaluationoftheeuro’sexchangerate.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsTheTriffinparadox:Therese

6、rve-currencyroleandexternaldebtAreservecurrencyisacurrencythatisheldbyinvestorswhodonotresideinthecountrythatissuesit.Thiscountrymustthereforesupplyassetsinitscurrencytonon-residentinvestorswhowishtoholdthem.Thismeansthatacountrythatissuesareservecurrency:-Musthaveanexternaldefici

7、t,sinceitalsoneedsthecapitalinflowscorrespondingtonon-residents’purchasesofassetsinitscurrency;-Musthaveexternaldebt,whichcorrespondstothestockofthecountry’sfinancialassetsavailabletobeheldbynon-residents.ThissituationispreciselythatoftheUnitedStates(Charts1AandB).Chart1AChart1BUn

8、itedStates:Current-accountbalance