那西提银行-欧洲-经济理论-欧元区工资形成的经验教训

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1、FlashEconomicsThelessonsfromwageformationintheeurozone18December2017-1473Whenweexaminetheevolutionofwageformationintheeurozone,weseetwomaintrends:Asevereweakeningofthepriceindexationofnominalwages.Thismeansthatinflationaryordisinflationaryshocksarenolongerreinforcedbyanominalwagereaction,b

2、uthaveastrongeffectonrealwages;Asevereweakeningoftheeffectoftheunemploymentrateonnominalwagegrowth(thePhillipscurveeffect).Thismeansthatafallintheunemploymentrateleadstoonlyasmallaccelerationinwagesandtoonlyasmallriseincoreinflation.Altogether,intheeurozonetoday:Fluctuationsinoilpriceshav

3、ealargeeffectongrowth(throughtheireffectoninflationandrealwages);Monetarypolicymustadapttoasituationwherecoreinflationremainslowevenattheendofexpansionperiods.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOL

4、UTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsEvolutionofwageformationintheeurozoneWeexplaineconometricallygrowthinnominalwagesintheeurozone,overseveralperiodssince1980,by:-Inflation(Chart1);-

5、Productivitygainsandthelevelofunitlabourcosts(whichintroducesapotentialcorrectionofcostcompetitiveness,Chart2);-Theunemploymentrate(effectofthePhillipscurve,Chart3).Chart1Chart2Eurozone:NominalpercapitawageandinflationEurozone:Percapitaproductivityandunitlabour(Y/Yas%)costsPercapitaproducti

6、vity(Y/Y,as%,LHS)15.0Nominalpercapitawage15.014Unitlabourcosts(1980:1=100,RHS)275Inflation(CPI)1225012.512.51022510.010.0820061757.57.541505.05.021252.52.50100-2750.00.0-450Sources:Datastream,Eurostat,NatixisSources:Datastream,Eurostat,Natixis-2.5-2.5-625808284868890929496980002040608101214

7、16188082848688909294969800020406081012141618Chart3Eurozone:Unemploymentrate(as%)1414121210108866Sources:Datastream,Eurostat,Natixis448082848688909294969800020406081012141618Table1showstheestimatedcoefficientsofthesedifferentvariablesoverthedifferentperio