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1、FlashEconomicsAretheECB’schoicesunderstandable?22January2018-65Theeuro-zoneeconomyisimprovingmarkedly,theunemploymentrateisnearingthestructuralunemploymentrateanddeflationisnolongerathreat,andyettheECBiskeepingahighlyexpansionarymonetarypolicyinplace.Isthischoiceunderstandable?Wedon
2、otbelievethatittrulyresultsfromadesiretoliftinflationtocloseto2%,nowthatdeflationisnolongerathreat;Itmayresultfromtheideathatevenwhentheeconomyisclosetofullemployment,demandstimuluscanhavepositiveeffects:increasingtheparticipationrate,encouragingcompaniestomakeproductivitygains;Itm
3、ayalsoresultfromconcernatwhatcouldensueshouldthebondbubbleburstintheeurozone:crisisamonginstitutionalinvestors,publicfinancecrisis.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosu
4、resattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsTheECB’sbehaviourmaysurpriseTheECBwillexitquantitativeeasingin2018(Chart1A),butitseemsdeterminedtokeepitskeyinterestrateszeroornegativeoveralongperiod(Chart1B).Chart1AChart1BEurozone:Monetarybase(inEURbn)Eurozone:Euroreporateandinterestrateonban
5、ks'depositsattheECB(as%)Inabsoluteterms(LHS)Euroreporate3,400Month-on-monthchange(RHS)2505Interestrateonbanks'depositsattheECB53,000200442,600150332,2001001,80050221,4000111,000-5000600-100Sources:Datastream,ECB,NatixisSources:Datastream,ECB,Natixis200-150-1-1020304050607080910111213
6、14151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Thefactitiskeepingitsmonetarypolicyexpansionarymaysurprise:growthismuchhigherthanpotentialgrowthintheeurozone(Chart2A),theunemploymentrateisnearingthestructuralunemploymentrate(Chart2B),deflationisnolongerathreat(Chart2C)andnominalwagesarea
7、cceleratingslightly(Chart2D).Chart2AChart2BEurozone:RealGDPandrealpotentialgrowthEurozone:Unemploymentrate(as%)(Y/Yas%)131366RealGDP(Y/Yas%)Realpotentialgrowth*12124411112210100099-2-288(*)Percapitaproductivitysmoothedoverthepast5years-4+labourforce(Y/Yas%)-477Sources:Datastream,ECB,
8、Eurostat,Nat
